Let’s be honest.
Let’s be honest. This bull run feels a little weird.
Weird. It is weird. Crypto is supposed to waltz to a neat 4-yearÂ
rhythm. Having hype blowoff blues. Instead, we have spot ETFs and corporate entities vacuumingÂ
up supply ahead of retail investors. memecoins mooning B4 blue chips and the world’s largestÂ
economy forming a strategic Bitcoin reserve. And this all makes it more difficult to figureÂ
out where exactly we are in this market cycle. And that’s why in this video, we’ll unpack theÂ
classic cycle, examine why this round looks a bit different, reveal who stands to win, and yes,Â
we’ll discuss whether the usual 4-year rhythm just flatlined. My name is Nick and this is a videoÂ
you cannot afford to miss. Before we start, a quick heads up. I’m not a financial adviser andÂ
this isn’t financial advice. We are just sharing information for education and entertainment. So,Â
always dy before investing. Now, to kick things off, it’s worth doing a quick refresher of theÂ
concept of the classic 4-year cycle. So, Bitcoin’s heartbeat is the haring, a hard-coded supplyÂ
cut that fires once every 210,000 blocks. The four events so far in 2012, 16, 20, and 2024 haveÂ
each sliced BTC issuance by half and in doing so throttled the steady stream of coins coming to theÂ
open market. Supply shrinks overnight while demand gradually rises in tandem. As many analysts andÂ
investors believe, the imbalance is the spark that ignites the major leg up in the typical cycle.Â
Reduced sell pressure from new supply lets price drift upward and the sky is the limit. The theoryÂ
states that as the market realizes a new scarcity regime is in force, a reflexive reaction occurs. AÂ
rising chart pulls in headlines. Headlines pull in fresh capital and the circular feedback loop sendsÂ
prices upwards at an increasing rate. Historical performance underscores the potency. From hingÂ
to cycle peak following each of the first three hings, Bitcoin rallied roughly 95 times, 30 times,Â
and eight times respectively. An eyewatering average that cementss the number go up legend.Â
During this stretch, crowd euphoria inflates valuation metrics such as the MVRV zed score.Â
And this is an onchain metric used to identify whether BTC is over or undervalued relative toÂ
its fair value. A reading above 7 has accompanied every major top to date. Though in mid 2025, theÂ
gauge is still well below that danger zone. But typically, momentum outruns fundamentals, usheringÂ
in the short, spectacular climax of a blowoff top. Minor profitability spikes. Long-term holdersÂ
transfer billions in dormant coins to exchanges, and leverage ratios reach cartoonish levels justÂ
before liquidity evaporates. When bids disappear, price collapses in a matter of weeks, markingÂ
the cycle’s zenith. The hangover of the classic four-year cycle is something which dare I sayÂ
every one of us is familiar. Draw downs of 70 to 90% across the board which purge excesses. HashÂ
rate then stalls and skeptics resurface to declare Bitcoin dead for the eenth time. Onchain realizedÂ
capitalization compresses as capitulation ensues. Offchain this has often coincided with monetaryÂ
conditions tightening amplifying the pain. The market then grinds sideways until we begin toÂ
approach the next haring when a rally begins in anticipation of the cadence restarting.Â
Four interlocking forces issuance maths, minor economics, reflexive psychology, and macroÂ
liquidity have all kept this metronome regular for more than a decade. Yet, as we hinted at in theÂ
introduction, this cycle seems to be departing slightly from that script. Before we discussÂ
how and why that is, give this video a like the first and most obvious departure from theÂ
prior bull run is the source of Bitcoin demand. In the past, retail traders and a smattering ofÂ
cryptonative funds drove the upside. This time, two deep pocketed buyer classes are hooveringÂ
up almost all of the coins on autopilot. US spot bitcoin ETFs launched around 18 monthsÂ
ago already custody around $135 billion in BTC. And what’s more, according to a jointÂ
report from Glass Node and Avenia Group, the bulk of those positions are unhedged long onlyÂ
mandates rather than fast money swing trades. To put this into context a bit, the largest spotÂ
Bitcoin ETF, the Black Rockck EyesShares Bitcoin Trust, currently holds about 692,000 BTC, andÂ
that’s equal to around 3.3% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever be in existence. RightÂ
behind the ETFs come the corporate treasuries. crypto’s favorite technology firm, Strategy,Â
has become a Bitcoin vacuum cleaner with its current stash sitting at 592,345 BTC or aroundÂ
$64 billion at the time of making this video. And chances are it’ll be higher by the time you watchÂ
it. And you may have noticed that strategy kicked off a bit of a trend with many more companiesÂ
following the Bitcoin Treasury approach. In total, 126 publicly traded companies now control justÂ
under 4% of the Bitcoin supply, worth around $89 billion. And that makes Treasury Desks theÂ
second largest structural sync after the ETFs, a role miners once used to play in reverse byÂ
adding supply. And this relentless cold storage migration has coincided with an environmentÂ
that paradoxically feels a bit sedated. Realized volatility on 3-month window is sitting belowÂ
50%. Remarkably low for a bull market and far beneath the 80 to 100% prints we saw in 2017Â
and 2021. Glass node attributes this calm to a heavier institutional mix and to longer holdingÂ
periods that dampen reflexive whiplash. Even short news-driven sell-offs have struggled to pushÂ
BTC outside of the 100 to 110k band of late. While Bitcoin supply tightens at the top, activityÂ
is exploding further down the crypto ecosystem. Ethereum layer 2 rollups such as base nowÂ
consistently process around 11 times more transactions per second than Ethereum itself.Â
Improved UX, modular data availability layers, account abstraction wallets, and near zero feeÂ
bridges mean newcomers can interact without even touching L1 gas prices at all. A dynamicÂ
that simply does not exist in earlier cycles. The retail zeitgeist has also shifted. In priorÂ
cycles, once Bitcoin topped, leading altcoins had their big rally, which would then be followed byÂ
altcoin mania as crypto traders ventured further out along the crypto risk curve to projectsÂ
that had little or nothing to do with crypto utility. In 2024 to 2025, however, memecoinsÂ
front ran altcoin majors on Salana. 54% of May’s DEX volume came from memecoin pairs. Back inÂ
February, this figure reached over 70%, something historically unprecedented. This inversion, highÂ
beta froth preceding any major blue chip momentum, suggests the speculative end of the market isÂ
behaving much differently this time around. Whatever the reason behind it, one can’t deny thatÂ
memecoin mania has been a core feature of the last year or so. And finally, the policy backdrop looksÂ
less binary than the harsh crackdown following 2021. The United States has just cleared a federalÂ
stable coin bill through the Senate, a landmark that moves us closer to the regulated pathÂ
for dollarbacked tokens. A pro- crypto SEC has meanwhile been dropping crypto cases left, right,Â
and center. It appears most crypto operations in the US have a clear green light in comparison toÂ
the previous cycles that were marked by constant state of existential dread. Combined with pro-Â
crypto overtures from the Trump administration and Micah’s roll out in Europe, regulation isÂ
becoming a clear map of green and red lights certainly leaning in favor of the industry overallÂ
rather than the onoff switch that had the industry constantly second-guessing its fate in the past.Â
Put together, 2025’s weirdness is structural. Supply is trapped in ETF vaults and corporateÂ
treasuries. Trading activity has migrated to cheaper rails. Retail speculation has reorganizedÂ
around memes and volatility is oddly tame, and the rule book is being rewritten in real time. The oldÂ
4-year step wall still echoes in the background, but the dancers have changed. The tempo is slowerÂ
and the floor itself has expanded. Thankfully, But how did this all come about right now? WhyÂ
has this institutional wall of money appeared now? Well, of course, the institutional bull run beganÂ
when talk of the spot Bitcoin ETFs got serious in the first half of 2023. Despite rejections ofÂ
the past, it quickly became clear that the big boys wanted a piece of the crypto action this timeÂ
around, and spot ETFs were to be the main gateway. Prices soared as odds of ETF approval kept rising.Â
And sure enough, spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and subsequently launched in January 2024. KeepÂ
in mind the timing of this rally was still pretty consistent with the traditional 4-year cycle. TheÂ
bids flooded in for the spot ETFs and BTC’s price soared 70% higher in the weeks following theirÂ
launch, ultimately forming a local top in March of that year. In September 2024, Bitcoin sawÂ
the beginning of its second major leg higher this cycle when US monetary policy loosened itsÂ
grip and the Federal Reserve delivered the first of what would become three consecutive rate cuts.Â
Grayscale’s monthly commentary noted that the very week of that initial cut, the Footsie GrayscaleÂ
crypto sectors index logged its largest return since March, a signaling that cheaper dollars wereÂ
already pushing out along the risk curve. When the Fed formally slowed quantitive tighteningÂ
in March 2025, trimming Treasury rolloffs to $5 billion a month, investors and tradersÂ
interpreted the gesture as a green light for still more risk. And of course, these liquidityÂ
tailwinds met a political tailwind when President Donald Trump won the presidential election aÂ
few months prior. Markets, particularly crypto, saw a massive leg up following confirmation of theÂ
crypto president’s victory in November last year, ultimately leading to a new all-time high. TrumpÂ
then went on to sign an executive order revoking several Biden era enforcement priorities andÂ
set up the presidential working group on digital assets. For the first time, US agencies were toldÂ
to nurture rather than neuter crypto innovation. Two months later, the administration crossed aÂ
symbolic Rubicon. An executive order issued in March this year created a strategic BitcoinÂ
reserve inside the treasury and required all forfeited BTC to be transferred there andÂ
quote not sold. Estimates put the initial trove at about 104,000 BTC as analysts do expectÂ
the return of 94,000 BTC to Bitfinex. Either way, this instantly removes another chunk of floatÂ
from circulation and signals to the world that Washington now treats Bitcoin like digital gold.Â
Congress is now on the verge of supplying the final piece of the puzzle through the Genius Act.Â
The bill’s one-toone reserve mandate would give stable coin issuers a clear federal charter andÂ
just as importantly tell traditional banks exactly how to participate. Put together spot bitcoinÂ
ETFs, corporate Bitcoin treasuries, some ease in monetary policy, a deregulatory blitz from theÂ
White House, and the creation of a US sovereign Bitcoin horde have stretched the market’s usualÂ
hovering tempo into something broader. More than that, all of these factors have made this cycleÂ
much more Bitcoin ccentric. While there have been opportunities for big runners in the altcoin spaceÂ
while Bitcoin rallied into six figure territory, the altcoin market looks very different from 2017Â
or 2021. As we noted earlier, memecoins are now a core feature of altcoin trading. MemecoinsÂ
have consistently accounted for a majority of all Salana DEX volume since Q2 2024. An inversionÂ
of past cycles where the major speculative froth typically arrived only after Bitcoin peaked.Â
If we are indeed in a Bitcoin ccentric cycle driven by institutions while altcoins generallyÂ
lag behind. You may be wondering where is retail in all of this. As it so happens we actuallyÂ
covered this in a separate video which you can watch right over here. Now, you don’t need us toÂ
tell you that alcoins are moving much differently than they did in previous cycles. However, thisÂ
then begs the question, has the typical 4-year cycle flatlined? Ever since Bitcoin’s first hingÂ
in 2012, investors have treated the 4-year cadence as gospel? Supply shock, reflexive meltup, crash,Â
and then recovery. Yet the evidence piling up in 2024 to 2025 is awkward for that tidy script.Â
Volatility is crushed. Drawd downs for Bitcoin are shallow but oddly prolonged. And priceÂ
has spent months meandering around without a clear expansion to one direction or the other.Â
Elsewhere in the crypto market, altcoins are also failing to showcase the typical explosiveÂ
moves we are used to. Instead, it seems we are continually faced with the odd spike here andÂ
there, followed by a slow bleed as prices can’t manage several big legs up. Bitcoin’s correctionsÂ
this cycle have maxed out at minus 30% rather than the routine 50 to 70% draw downs seen in previousÂ
cycles. This is enough to shake out weak hands, but far too gentle to reset valuations in a singleÂ
waterfall. So, what’s changed? Well, the cycle’s once violent market movements have been muffled byÂ
dollar cost averaging leviathans. US spot bitcoin ETF issuers continue to soak up BTC seeminglyÂ
oblivious to price spikes. Corporate treasuries such as strategy add predictable bids and theÂ
US Treasury itself will lock away an estimated 104,000 BTC. This all smoothens out volatility inÂ
the market. In fact, as a result of these factors, Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argues that macroÂ
catalysts, not blockreward math supply shocks, now set the tempo, and that quote, “The traditionalÂ
4-year cycle is over.” In crypto miners, once the involuntary sellers who punctuated everyÂ
cycle, are also less binary. With sophisticated hedging desks at firms, they are pre-elling hashÂ
rates months ahead via forward markets, turning the haring from a cliff into a manageable stepÂ
down. Glass nodes research shows minor balances shrinking only marginally since April’s rewardÂ
cut. A far cry from the capitulation waves that followed earlier hings. Even the market’s riskierÂ
corners are divorcing themselves from the cycle. Memecoin Mania suggests that retail speculationÂ
is now driven less by tech or Bitcoin dominance and more by low friction wallets, social mediaÂ
virality, or just some good old-fashioned cabals looking into Schiller token they launched in 2Â
seconds through a memecoin launchpad. Of course, none of this proves that the drum beat is dead,Â
only that its rhythm is changing. ETFs cannot absorb coins forever. Miners still face rise inÂ
energy costs and reflexive price action can still ignite when the necessary conditions do induceÂ
it. Yet, if the cycle once mimicked a consistent uh metronome, maybe it now resembles jazz,Â
familiar motifs, but unexpected pauses and crescendos that arrive on their own schedule.Â
Crypto investors who cling to the old sheet music risk missing the tune altogether. Four-year cycleÂ
or not, Bitcoin is stealing the show, the cycle, and cementing itself as the institutionallyÂ
accepted crypto asset. But then, how should we approach the altcoin market in an institutionallyÂ
driven cycle? We are not under any illusions here. We believe that there will continue to be aÂ
memecoin season in the future. The temptation of trying to catch a 100x runner will not leaveÂ
the mind of retail crypto traders. However, in the context of an institutionally driven cycle, otherÂ
sectors do stand to benefit. With this backdrop, one altcoin sector in particular stands out.Â
Realworld assets or RWA asset tokenization has sprinted from proof of concept to headlineÂ
act. Public blockchains now host roughly $ 24 billion in tokenized treasuries, credit, andÂ
commodities, double what it was last year. And the curve is still climbing. Black Rockck’s BiddleÂ
Fund alone commands $2.9 billion and can now be posted as collateral on major crypto venues.Â
Proof that Wall Street’s rails and DeFi’s pipes are finally meshing. In parallel, stable coinÂ
issuers already need over $200 billion in T- bills to back their tokens. So any further increase inÂ
stable coin supply translates into nearly the same amount of treasury demand. Hard data also backsÂ
this narrative. Coin Gekcko calculates that the tokenized treasury sector has grown 545% since theÂ
start of 2024, outpacing every other RWA vertical. Projects that pipe real yield from sovereign debt,Â
money market funds, or revenue sharing real estate into token form. Therefore, look primed to absorbÂ
the bulk of institutional capital that may venture out along the crypto risk curve away from Bitcoin.Â
Yet, yield alone won’t be enough. If crypto has truly arrived as an asset class, projects shouldÂ
also show real product usage and some profitable cash flows. DeFi blue chip A clears that bar,Â
hauling in $85 million in annualized protocol revenue and charging nearly $600 million inÂ
annualized fees across its money markets. Those numbers give allocators something meatier thanÂ
potential TVL to underwrite, and they illustrate why seasoned investors increasingly demand auditedÂ
revenues, not just tokconomic PDFs. The snag here, however, is saturation. Crypto now has manyÂ
millions of tokens, while heavy unlock schedules and fragmented liquidity keep raising the hurdleÂ
for newcomers. Many analysts believe that capital is clustering around selective winners withÂ
authentic product market fit and active users while narrative only coins face a swift culling.Â
With that in mind, in a world of infinite tickers, missing the right horse because you venturedÂ
too far out the risk curve becomes an ever larger danger. That is why most investors chooseÂ
to keep BTC as their portfolio’s anchor. bids from institutional investors, corporate treasuries, andÂ
even potentially a bid adding to the US strategic reserve all focus on Bitcoin. Altcoins can offerÂ
greater returns than Bitcoin, but you better have a good reason to opt for something that doesn’tÂ
have that structural bid. Now, while we have all established that this time around looks aÂ
little bit different to the typical 4-year cycle, we refrain from stating those dangerousÂ
words that uh this time is different. So, if we are in the final innings of a 4-year cycleÂ
before a bare market unfolds, a Bitcoin top is expected sometime between Q3 this year and Q1Â
2026. But how high might we go for that cycle top? At the time of making this video, total cryptoÂ
market cap sits at $3.2 trillion with Bitcoin commanding roughly 65% of that value and stableÂ
coins a further 8%. Whether the coming months can add another couple of trillion or several hingesÂ
on the same forces that have sent Bitcoin into six figure territory. A consistent institutionalÂ
investor base, a White House bent on deregulation, and generally softer monetary policy. If stableÂ
coin demand continues to grow while these factors maintain their positive push on crypto prices, theÂ
total crypto market cap could reach $5 trillion and beyond. Still an expansion of 55% from here.Â
And this would be roughly in line with analysts at JP Morgan who see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 thisÂ
year. However, there are certainly more bullish analysts out there, such as Standard Charted,Â
who think that Bitcoin will reach $200,000, a near 100% increase from current prices. WhicheverÂ
branch the market takes, one warning endures. Attempting to time the top perfectly is seductiveÂ
and winds up being costly more often than not. Keeping the 4-year cycle in mind can beÂ
helpful, but it is important to note that the game has indeed changed. Having Bitcoin as aÂ
portfolio’s anchor seems to remain the core tenant of navigating these ever evolving crypto markets,Â
even more so in this Bitcoin ccentric cycle. So, letting a few promising altcoins ride shotgunÂ
and treating everything else further out along the risk curve as a lottery ticket remains aÂ
reliable way to enjoy the view. if the market does indeed climb toward $5 trillion and beyondÂ
and to survive if it stalls out before then. Now,
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