President Donald Trump went social early Tuesday morning, making it clear he has not left the G-7 summit early to tackle a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, disrupting the gap in key stock indexes at the opening bell.
Fair to intermediate economic data rarely changes short-term trends, and does nothing to change the current course of the Federal Reserve with mixed messages from “soft” surveys and “hard” sources that reflect near-universal uncertainty about the impact on inflation.
Financial policymakers are being convened, the next Fed meeting is ongoing, with the market at 99.9% certainty, and the FOMC will hold a federal funding rate of 4.25% to 4.50% at 2pm on Wednesday.
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We continue to track news and developments related to the FOMC meetings on the Live Fed Blog.
President Trump told reporters Tuesday that he hopes for a “real end” to the conflict between Israel and Iran. This means a resolution of nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic and a lasting end to its ambitions for fission weapons.
“Iran should have signed a ‘deal’ that I told them to sign,” Trump posted. “What a shame, a waste of human life. I said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. I have said many times! Everyone should evacuate Tehran soon!”
Leading Ulysses S. Grant and Franklin D. Roosevelt showed their willingness to engage in an expanded and expanded mission shortly after the day.
“Unconditional surrender,” he posted, and investors, traders and speculators accelerated sales.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reached 20.99 as of the end of Monday prior to opening from 19.11 on Tuesday, and surged to 21.79 later in the trading day.
Expected Game
Cooling CPI…cooling PCE…soft retail sales…soft industrial production…but rate-cut watches continue. Future insurance rates are about inflation expectations, according to Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal.
“Authorities are worried that the tariff announcement since March could disrupt what economists call “inflation expectations,” Timilaos wrote.
What consumers and businesses think inflation is “unable to see or touch” in the future is “very difficult to measure” but also “very important” for Powell and his fellow policymakers.
The Census Bureau said retail sales fell 0.9% in May, while consensus expectations for the 0.7% slides compiled by Factset had fallen. The 0.1% gain in April was revised downward to a 0.1% decrease.
The Federal Reserve reported a 0.2% decline in industrial production in May against its unchanged forecast after an increase of 0.1% during April.
“The Fed is sniffing at weak sales and industrial production data in retail sales,” writes Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets. Powell and the FOMC “we will not change prices this week as we continue to measure the inflation and growth impact of the administration’s tariff policy.”
By the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average had reduced from 0.7% to 42,215, while the S&P 500 had reduced by 0.8% at 5,982, and the Nasdaq composite had reduced from 0.9% to 19,521.
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Gold traded the unders on Tuesday, but fell low during the day as President Trump went to social media again to implement foreign policy and defined military strategy.
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