Bitcoin’s $100,000 breakthrough: what traders expect next

With Bitcoin having a significant psychological threshold of $100,000, derivative traders are closely watching signals that could mark the final leg.

Derivative experts Gordon Grant and Joshua Lim told Beincrypto that Bitcoin’s move above $100,000 reflect a long-term holding strategy, unlike the speculative trade seen when they first crossed that threshold after Trump’s election victory.

Bitcoin approaches $100k: Another kind of rise?

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin’s price is just under $98,000. As it grows, traders look at it with concern as it exceeds the $100,000 threshold. This will then be the second time in cryptography history that this has happened.

According to the Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trader Gordon Grant, the current move to six numbers lacks the euphoric energy of past rallys like they did after winning the US general election last November. But that could be a good thing.

“This current bounceback feels like a modest, lethargic landfill of these highs,” Grant told Beincrypto, referring to Bitcoin’s recovery from around $75,000 in early April. “Positioning placed through all the important moving averages was a decent washout.”

He added that the washout cleaned the deck for a healthier rebound with sharp movements that washed away weak hands. As Grant stated it, “fast bounce” followed.

“Since then, I’ve slowed responsibly with a $95,000 pivot, which has been around for over five months, at +/- 15% level,” he added.

In Grant’s view, this sets the stage for Bitcoin to achieve a more important and lasting climb with the $100,000 mark. This could lead to the price at the $110,000 peak that we touched on around the US inauguration earlier this year.

However, he also pointed out some key components that Bitcoin needs to line up in the derivatives market to launch higher.

Volatiles included: Key components for the next surge of Bitcoin

To reach unprecedented levels, volatility needs to be reduced.

Volatility measures the range and speed of changes in Bitcoin price. Bullish scenarios favor stable prices or gradual rises over wild shaking.

According to Grant, traders selling options on Bitcoin volatility have shown more modest behavior during the price rally in January.

“The current self-satisfaction in Vol’s sellers fade technical thresholds at $10,000 is markedly different,” he said.

Grant added that in December volatility skyrocketed in response to expectations of a rapid moonshot from $130,000 to $150,000. But now, during the last 10% of Bitcoin climbs, the implicit volatility has actually dropped by around 10 points.

This time, a significant loss of market optimism also contributes to the situation.

The rise of institutional buyers

Market sentiment has been changing dramatically since January. The excitement seen in Trump’s election has been replaced by uncertainty. According to Grant, sour macro conditions such as tariff-driven stock sales and increased attention among traders contribute to this mood shift across the market.

“BTC, on the other hand, at its first launch of up to $10,000, was accompanied by a sense of happiness about presidential policy, but the re-approach is undermined by mal lazyness,” Grant explained.

In short, the motivation to buy may be caused by fear rather than greed.

Joshua Lim, global co-head of Falconx’s market, agreed to this analysis, highlighting the significant changes in key sources of Bitcoin demand.

“The dominant story centers around micro-strategic stocks that accumulate bitcoin. It’s a more consistent buyer than retail swing traders,” Lim told Beincrypto.

In other words, more speculative retail purchases may have encouraged early enthusiasm about the price of Bitcoin reaching $100,000. This time, similar to the strategies adopted in Michael Saylor’s strategy, a more consistent, large-scale purchase adopts a long-term Bitcoin holding strategy from large companies.

The recent formation of 21 capitals, supported by mega-companies such as Tether and Softbank, further confirms this change in motivation.

Consistent institutional purchases can also increase over time in Bitcoin prices.

Why are institutions increasingly bullishing with Bitcoin?

With sovereign players and corporate finances gaining momentum, purchasing facilities could be important to maintain Bitcoin’s next upward trajectory.

Grant emphasized that developing countries are hoping to move away from more independent assets like Bitcoin, and could play a key role. If this happens, it would mean a potential structural shift towards global monetary policy.

“Wonkey and inexplicable dollar policy fatigue, Global South may be really thinking about dumping dollars for BTC,” Grant explained, “it’s a decision of the reserve manager, not a specification/leverage position.”

The rise in institutional adoption reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is currently serving as a way to reduce risks to issues related to the financial system, such as inflation and currency devaluation.

Meanwhile, more companies view Bitcoin as a legitimate financial asset.

“Many others, including SMLR, 21cap and NVDA, have decided that they need to derail their balance sheets by redisplaying BTC.

Simply put, even large institutions have chosen to take on the risk of Bitcoin price fluctuations.

Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s approach to $100,000, true expectations are focused on continuing development as an increasingly enduring element of the financial system.