trade war Are there buyers at these
levels or is this going to get worse Liberation Day Fallout A closer look at how the
tariffs impacting global markets and how other countries are responding Crypto in Q2 Surely it
can’t get any worse than this Right Right And a closer look at last week’s best performing
cryptos dates for your diary tweets of the week and prayers of remembrance for all of
our bags This is the Coin Bureau News Live Good afternoon and welcome to your weekly
coin bureau therapy sessions Now are tariff fears giving you the blues Well have we got the
solution for you A healthy dose of humor and of course copium Guy what is it with the attire
I Nick I I want to draw your attention to uh a comment left by one Brett Thompson in the comments
Uh I put money that Guy is wearing a garbage bag and barefoot as his ETH bag is now completely
worthless and Mrs Guy has kicked his ass to the curb I mean it where How did you get a line into
this Where are you getting your info from Where’s the source Um don’t worry guy I’ve got some good
news for you Even though your ETH bags are in the toilet Bitcoin has not hit zero yet Not yet Not
yet Okay that’s still above zero That’s something It’s still above zero Um Gosh it’s it’s tough out
there isn’t it It’s tough indeed Wow Um I know in it’s every single week we start these off saying
can it get any worse It seems to prove itself Um last week was last week was quite an eventful
week of course with the liberation day tariffs and uh it was going relatively well I suppose for
Bitcoin until of course the weekend Um and we’ll get on to that in a bit But yes of course starting
of course guys let us know down below how is the sentiment going We’ll obviously stop halfway
through to get a sentiment check to see how it will set the tone for the stream obviously Uh
hopefully um you guys are holding up Uh and yeah let’s begin this Coin Bureau therapy sessions
with a look at the Bitcoin price because of course Bitcoin is the talk of the town right now
in terms of its collapse over the week o overnight So of course uh let’s roll our minds back
to last Monday which was looking relatively bullish because that’s when Sailor announced
another big buy another big Bitcoin buy almost $2 billion worth And um you know that was
obviously bullish for the markets It seemed to have pumped Bitcoin a little bit We were
rolling higher Uh we also have a tweet this week I believe Um so that just shows exactly the
mindset sailor is in Unfortunately no buyers are coming in to save our bags today Yes it looks
like so just he’s stating the obvious Yeah just just remember that Just remember that guys I’ve
got over half a million of them There we go Um but there was another positive last week Monday
we did indeed close the CME gap which I alluded to in the previous live stream Obviously these
tend to get closed quite quickly Um so that’s a positive It did retrace you know recover past
the CME gap And then of course last week we also Monday we had the announcement that GameStop
had officially closed their $ 1.5 billion debt offering which therefore means they now have
the cash should they decide to buy if they’ve been embarrass bullish enough you know they might
timed it pretty well They might have indeed Yeah And indeed Michael the Cohen the CEO of GameStop
bought more GameStop shares So we indeed ended the uh the day on Monday last week slightly up which
was a welcome and then on Tuesday we slowly moved higher on some optimism around the fact that
the tariffs may not be as bad as many people had expected Yes Well this was the uncertainty all
week wasn’t it Because people were just like well maybe he’s bluffing Maybe this is 4D chess Maybe
he’s maybe all a gigab brain move It’s all a gigab brain move guys Come on Um and then of course
we broke 85k back above 85k last week Tuesday and then came liberation day Wednesday They shall
live for infamy That’s actually a tweet from the official White House Twitter account Wow So this
isn’t one that our production team have knocked up This is this has been done from the White House
From the White House his prison mug shot on the back of on top of like uh some bald eagles and
the stars and stripes America getting three bald eagles in there just for you know just to really
hammer it out Exactly There are bald eagles there Um and it was universally badly received It was
way worse than many had expected Uh way worse Um so we’ll obviously be talking all about that in a
in a minute guys in the next section Um but what is surprising is on top of all of this turmoil
Bitcoin held up surprisingly well Um and uh we’ll get back to that Thursday and Friday continued Of
course turmoil continued in the stock markets It was the worst two-day route in stocks since co
Take a look at that That is extraordinary isn’t it That is extraordinary And China also up the
ante with a 34% retaliation which of course sunk markets even more That’s going to give me global
stocks is just in the complete look at that That’s I think the S snp NASDAQ Nicay all completely
collapsing And it wasn’t just stocks It was bond yields tanked Uh the VIX which is of course the
indicator of the Wall Street fear index that was going to the moon Okay So bullish fear Bullish
fear Everyone’s going to fear Everyone get into fear folks That’s the indicator When it spikes
it shows everyone is [ __ ] in their pants Okay Okay That is u it’s the implied volatility index
on the S&P Uh oil completely collapsed overnight over the past few days as well Okay That’s bad
news for Vladimir Putin Yeah he may have missed the he may have escaped the tariffs but not the
collapsing oil prices didn’t quite go according to his plan there Um and perhaps more concerning
is credit spreads have blown out Now this isn’t potentially a barometer of what’s going on in
the economy because it’s basically the bond spreads on you know high yield corporate bonds of
these corporates that could potentially be facing financial stress So that spiked It was the biggest
two-day move since CO as well in high yield credit spreads Um and yet can you believe that over
the that week Look at this chart Look at that Bitcoin up 1% S&P down NASDAQ down 10% I thought
you know Bitcoin has proven itself Yeah this is this is Bitcoin’s moment to seize back that off
This is this is digital gold This is safe haven This is risk This is where you can store your
cash at the Valhalla We have arrived Of course it was not meant to be cuz overnight it couldn’t
it couldn’t escape the massive That is just We’re doing it guys We’re making it We’re making it
Uh we lose our will to live Just need to put a flushing toilet sound at the top of that red
candle That is that is absolutely brutal It fell badly below It broke below 75K today Okay Okay And
it is currently Let me just double check because I mean 77,000 77 Okay picked picked up a little
perked up a little bit you know um there is some positive news guy I I did manage to find some
positive news amongst all of this needles in a hay stack uh the bit number of Bitcoin sellers
is potentially drying up because this is the amount of exchange inflows flowing to exchanges
over the past few weeks and you’ll see that it had dropped quite considerably since the highs in
November and January although I will caveat that this chart is 2 to 3 days old So we could have an
over the weekend everyone just cheated their bags It reminds me of that meme I’m seeing it a lot on
crypto Twitter at the moment You you have the sort of sellers are exhausted sellers and it’s guys
on like a treadmill with David Gogins Yeah David Gogggins who cannot be stopped Literally the most
intense individual Um but thankfully guy if we are going to be suffering a quantum attack a quantum
computing attack hash rate is at an all-time high So Okay Yeah So the network’s secure The network
is secure guys You can rest at easy knowing the network is secure Okay Price not so much but
network is secure So the question is uh where from here then Yeah exactly where to from here
Well obviously one of the biggest concerns right now is of course the global trade war and this
is obviously lots of stuff is happening over the next few days We’ll have to see if what’s going
to happen when it comes to Fed policy in terms of Trump is going to reverse in anything Today the
stock markets in Asia opened up much lower In fact the fall on the Hang Sen index in in Hong Kong
was the worst since 1997 Good grief So this is so because we’ve been seeing so many comparisons
with CO haven’t we You know um you got your um um COVID being an issue COVID being uh referenced
as as as a as a sort of benchmark and yes so 1997 what happened in 1997 That was the Asian financial
crisis Okay Yeah So um anyways futures markets in the US are also down Um they’re down by uh there
we can say this is about 2 to 3% So very close to reaching the bare market uh officially in a bare
market for the S&P if it opens up and goes down by about 3% today Extreme fear it’s at four It’s four
There we go Four It doesn’t mean four No longer the four CZ It’s a different kind of four That’s
that’s the sentiment for totally different Um and uh yeah and obviously markets are opening in 10
minutes so we’ll have to see It’s opening during the stream We’ll have to see what’s going on there
Um for what it is worth Bitcoin did open up a very big CME gap to the downside uh this evening
obviously Now yes we usually come back and close CME gaps But in this case I think it will be it
will struggle to close that unless there are some positive on the macro side of it at least some
sort of a relief coming from Trump coming from uh the Fed Um we also did have unfortunately a
daily death cross which is termed when some when you have a moving average a slower moving
average moving over the longer term moving average In this case the 50-day moving average
had crossed over the 100 day the 200 day moving average So in case that didn’t the name didn’t
give it away a death cross is not necessarily a good thing Okay So you don’t need to be an expert
in in charting uh charting patterns to know that generally people who develop generally people who
develop technical analysis charts also fear death as much as us guy Okay So just checking death
isn’t good in death isn’t good Damn Yeah Okay But someone could be coming to the rescue uh with
stimulus It is of course our money printer chief Mr Jerome Pal This was a JP Morgan analyst Mr Bob
Michelle who said on Bloomberg that the Fed could step in for an emergency rate cut before the next
meeting They’re actually having a meeting today the Fed aren’t they Yes they are I don’t know
It’s a closed doors meeting I don’t think it’s um necessarily emergency I think it’s scheduled
but no doubt I would love to be a fly on that wall Yeah that would be that would be fed goes out
Can you believe [ __ ] crazy literally fed speed goes out the window Um but um all roads do lead to
money printing And this reminds me of an actual I did an interview over the weekend with Arthur
Hayes where I we talked about his most recent piece uh which was referencing uh Fed’s money
printing and how the Fed will have to submit to the fiscal dominance of Bessant and co and it was
really interesting and basically it is it is true if we are going to have to have monetary stimulus
the Chinese talked about it which we’ll talk about a bit later there is all roads lead to money
printing so I will of course refer you guys to that interview it will be linked to below and of
course if you’re not subscribed to the more coin bureau it’s right over here in a QR code where you
can go if you love Coinbau where you can get more Coinb Who wouldn’t want more Coin Bureau Um that’s
a great interview with Arthur He’s uh he’s such a good talker isn’t he He is man And he’s also an
amazing writer Like his pieces Yeah I mean let’s face it his his calls aren’t always right but it’s
always it’s always good fun to read him and hear him sort of set out his stall isn’t it Exactly
Yeah So I do recommend that interview So basically I guess it’s a question of how long you can hold
on for stimulus Yeah Exactly At some point it seem maybe sooner than we expected stimulus is
going to come If if markets continue tanking and if recessionary fears start creeping up then
stimulus will have to come and Jerome will have to submit Okay Okay All right Uh would you like to
uh would you like to get a sense of the sentiment um that’s happening in the comments Okay Um well
interesting news is that it’s it’s actually not too bad I think Um uh let’s have a look Uh I’ve
had uh reformed gold bug So that’s a good name Uh I’ve had a big BTC buy order in at 73,000 for
a while so you can bet the bottom will be 73,100 Oh haven’t we been there We all been there Keeps
format is I’m still bullish on BTC Yeah Uh Kian is uh call me crazy but I’m buying Okay A lot of
people buying the dip Katherine uh says filled two limit orders Oh nice seems obviously there are
some people who are a bit more bearish in the comments but in general it seems there’s a lot of
bullishness I I think a lot of the people watching this stream are probably kind of hardened veterans
by now They’ve been they’ve been in the trenches for a while So you tell me when they watch start
in watching a stream where one of their hosts is wearing a garbage bag is not damaged not impacted
on their sentiment too badly They will look back and go that was the bottom That was guy wearing
guy wearing a rubbish bag That was the bottom It was so in retrospect it was so obvious This will
go down in history guy The it timed the bottom perfectly Crypto Twitter in like five years time
Y’all remember when that dick from Coin Bureau was wearing a garbage bag on stream Turns out that
was the bottom It should have been buying Yeah The the guy indicator The garbage bag indicator
should be added to our technical analysis toolbox Yeah Is is guy wearing is guy wearing a bin bag
Um static verse the shock That’s an interesting name I need Bitcoin to keep dipping so I can stack
some sets yo Okay um whereas uh Cell Opera says uh worst bull run ever See you in 2028 Okay so
a mix of sentiment there but in general like I say I think a lot of you folks watching have
have been around this particular block a few times by now So you know that um that dips like
this have to be have to be written out and the course Yeah Um I think if we’re going to take any
positives from this situation and I feel we should um this is not uh this is not a cryptospecific
crash like as you as you pointed out all markets are suffering at the moment this isn’t uh there
hasn’t been some cryptoreated catastrophe and I guess you could argue that even though there’s
a lot of uncertainty ahead and we don’t know how these tariffs are going to play out there is
a still there is still a bullish outlook for crypto in a lot of ways which we’re going to look
at in a bit more detail a bit later on So we all collectively poor we all suffering together Yeah
Exact Yeah It ain’t so bad when every like oil the oil guys are poor Stocks the stocks guys are poor
Billionaires are poor poorer much poor Everyone is suffering Yeah Like you know okay you know a few
of us have lost X,000 Some guys out there have lost billions Yeah Mind you they had billions to
start with but it’s a detail It’s a detail Anyways speaking about the liberation day and its fallout
Um I think this image sums it up pretty perfectly Mind you only 302 views Yeah I mean our our videos
get way more views than that right You know I mean not even with a clickbait title like that Yeah
I mean that’s Yeah you’ve got to be you’ve got to have quite niche tastes uh to click on that
I suppose Fairly Barack taste in entertainment I suppose to click on that But uh yeah it’s
a at once bro That’s quite an achievement Wow So yeah that’s one of them And then another
one of course uh this is a nice inver uh alternative view of this meme So true So so true
Not even protecting it My poor old bags But I think let’s start off in case anyone out there has
been away from the internet the news or their cell phones or anything over the past few days and they
don’t know what the hell is going on I think it it may help us to clarify exactly what these tariffs
were because like we say they were an absolute shocker Um so basically uh it was a sweeping
tariff regime that was unveiled All US imports now get a 10% across the board baseline tariff
Doesn’t matter if you have a deficit or a surplus you’re getting 10% Okay 10% across the board He’s
not discriminating Um uh higher duty rates will apply to nations deemed as unfair traders So this
includes the UK the EU Japan and of course China M um North America largely spared although
some goods will still face tariffs such as uh autos and stuff and um yeah there was also
the like I said 25% on all imported auto tariffs includes parts as well which is obviously a very
big concern for car makers okay so that’s things like uh steel aluminium not aluminum aluminium
um so yeah so raw materials here so even so this is what’s so baffling isn’t it because like the
thinking is that they want American American car companies to to to sell to American consu They
want American consumers to buy American cars but American cars are going to become more expensive
to make if they’re having to import steel at 25% more at 25% That’s only some of it It’s Well I
mean that’s some stuff right Because a lot of the components are from the likes of China Vietnam
or it’s much more Um but here is a list of the reciprocal tariffs Now this is very interesting
and this we talked about of course in the NFA uh live last week and um so those are the tariff
lists and what was very interesting or curious was how they came up with these country tariffs
right these and it turned out to be a very dubious calculation in the sense that they just divided
the US trade um deficits um they just divided the US trade deficit by the actual uh one sec we
got something on the screen antivirus expired God go on Nick Things are going from bad to worse
That’s malware and it’s going to steal all of your coins guy Sorry I can have my E I know Um so
yeah of course they divided the US trade deficit with the said country by the exports of to the
US which is a very very like basic calculation It’s nothing to do with the actual tariff rate
It just tries to come as a very rough um very rough estimate of how you would kind of like equa
uh come to some sort of an equation that would uh balance this trade So it’s a it was a very
kind of like this is the actual formula Let’s show it here up in the Oh yeah Well I mean do you
think that Yeah I mean to be honest it’s like the it basically has nothing to do with the tariffs So
that’s just to do with the fact that if a country has a trade imbalance so it doesn’t matter
if they have zero tariffs If you have a trade imbalance with the US the assumption therefore is
it must be because of an unfair trade practice It must be because you’re you’re exactly screwing
Yeah Exactly Not to account for the not to count account account for the fact that the US may
be buying these products because they cannot be produced or grown in the US Like there’s not a lot
of coffee grown in the US nor bananas People can’t make certain goods in the US just because they
aren’t buying as many goods from the US Now this assumption that there’s this unbalancing trade it
has to be you know fixed through this very intern uh you know elementary grade ma math equation
Um and these are the actual tariffs just to put them up to the screen These are the actual world
world trade organization weighted tariffs and as you can see the imposed tariffs from Trump’s
calculation there in some cases is more than 10 times higher Yeah So it is really uh what did
Lutu ever do poor suit but I think they they do textiles I think I think they produce textiles
So maybe it’s because they’ve got they send the US lots of cheap clothing and now the US has
basically just hidden them with that Um but uh in funnier in funnier [Laughter] news
this was this was the this was the sort of uh olive branch of uh of relief that everyone
was kind of grasping onto wasn’t it um the fact that Trump uh al the list of countries also
included the Herd and Macdonald Islands Yes An an uninhabited island Well only inhabited by penguins
and seals Yeah So this is uh this is actually a a territory of Australia Um as I understand no human
has set foot there for 10 years And it takes two weeks by boat from Perth Western Australia to get
there But hey you know those guys those penguins they’ve been getting away with it for too long
Those penguins those goddamn penguins you know you know they’ve been And don’t even get they
aren’t buying enough US’s fish Yeah The seals you know those trading balances They’re not
buying enough fish from the US you know Yeah Do you think that Trump heard about the herd
of McDonald’s is like you know McDonald’s I like McDonald’s Okay Yeah Yeah Screw them Anyh who
many people have been talking about Smoot Holly Um obviously this comes to mind now Smooth holy was
these tariffs that were implemented back the the tariff act back in the 1930s Yeah And this uh led
many many most seem to think and most economists and most the consensus is they led to the great
depression Although I think what’s Trump’s angle is that well so the great depression had started
8 months before the tariffs were were enacted but the I think the consensus among economists now is
that they you know they made the great depression a lot worse like it lasted for longer than it
would have done Trump’s um Trump’s assertion is that the Great Depression only happened because
tariffs weren’t high enough So I mean he’s really kind of fighting fire with fire there Um I think
yeah what’s interesting is that because we’ve got a video on the tariffs coming out tomorrow I
think And when we were when we were researching this it’s interesting to see how back then when
the Smoot Holy tariffs were being proposed and then introduced all virtually all of America’s
economists were just like “This is a terrible idea.” Henry Ford said it was a terrible idea The
um the CEO of JP Morgan uh was sort of saying you know he begged Hoover I think was the president
not to do it And we seem to have a similar sort of level of consensus this time around I mean
okay there are a few people out there going um you know kind of taking Trump’s side on this and
going well you know that there could be method in this madness but I think generally the consensus
is this is going to this is going to trash the economy and is really not a very good idea Seems
to be Yeah indeed And if you take a look back at that graph we can put back up on the screen uh in
terms of the baseline lower estimate even just on the lower estimate of the tariffs is at least at
the smooth holy rates the average rate but at the upper estimate we’re talking 30% So it’s crazy Um
now of course the reaction in the markets well as one can imagine wasn’t very pleasant Uh stocks
completely crashed Um uh but there were stocks is one thing that’s just financial that’s just
asset prices and company uh stock prices bigger concerns around what impact this could have on
the economy Uh and JP Morgan came out and revised their estimates for a recession in the US up 60%
not just in the US obviously in the US but also global recession the chance of a global recession
this year is at 60% Am I right in thinking that when we did the stream last week so this time
last week JP Morgan had revised it up to 35% I think that was Goldman JP Morgan was at 40% but
that was US Now it’s completely up So now they’ve slapped a 20% rise on their chances Um Pal is
of course really concerned about inflation in a speech he gave last uh last week Trump of course
has urged Pal to come out and cut um in his truth social post today Yeah Trump is being very vocal
about well s very vocal in kind of trying to convince Fed policy Exactly But the chances of
a rate cut are indeed increasing a lot Uh this is the Fed CME watch tool Uh as you can see the
distribution moving to the left considerably from the current versus a week ago and indeed a month
ago And right now there’s an 81% chance of four cuts by the end of the year This is 2025 December
2025 And 46% chance of five cuts And Goldman Sachs predicts 130 basis points in Fed rate cuts for
2025 So yeah that’s um that’s another that’s six cuts So so we could end up getting what we
wished for Yeah Yeah It’s sort of Yeah No pipe cut Sorry Yeah Yeah Yeah So um reciprocation the
most biggest concern is of course reciprocation in in coming Um Canada reciprocated on autos
that are not subject to this US MCA deal Uh China reciprocated that was the big one at 34%
Although the EU the EU is considering options um but the UK and others have seek offramps Okay
Yeah Okay So I guess the theme of the rest of this week and probably the coming weeks is you know
countries all over scrambling to negotiate We’ve seen I think Vietnam uh has already sort of picked
up the phone and started negotiating I think uh there was another country in Southeast Asia that
has done the same Cambodia might be Cambodia because I mean Cambodia was at the top of that
list that you showed earlier So I guess that’s going to save the day man If Cambodia strikes
a free trade deal with the US markets will fly We’re on We’re on bro Get ready It’s gone guys Um
yes So but this is going to be the theme isn’t it There’s going to be negotiation There’s going to
be or or there’s going to be push back like we’re seeing from China Yeah indeed Yeah Yeah It’s going
to be it’s going to be volatile I think that’s fair to say Um should we leave the last word on
tariffs Uh I just saw this earlier and I think it’s a good one So this is Senator John Kennedy
Um tariffs are like whiskey A little whiskey under the right circumstances can be refreshing but
too much whiskey under the wrong circumstances can make you drunk as a goat Well good thing that
the EU is going to tariff all American whiskey Okay so um yeah tariffs It’s um I mean this is
this is the only game in town at the moment This is driving all markets This is probably going
to continue driving markets for weeks on end So uh buckle up and hold on tight Okay let’s move on
now to the walls of fame and shame Rise and fall [Music] Beautiful Okay Um let’s start with the uh Jesus
Coin coin bureau 2026 I like the fact we listen to new studio New studio We were thinking of
upgrading guys but this is the new studio It’s got the lighting isn’t too good to be fair
Um and and you know our equipment is a radio which is it’s not as good as the camera
but at least we can get our message out At least we can still hold these live streams
to people out there in the world through our uh old 80s radio It’s 18 ft underground because uh
the rest of the world is a radioactive wasteland Um but otherwise good So thank you Thank you guys
Thank you Thank you AI for that All right Uh Wall of Shame this week I mean it can only be it can
only be uh Donald Trump can’t it Yeah Um so I mean I guess there is a I guess there is probably
cause to suggest Trump for a permanent feature on the wall of shame if he doesn’t turn around and
help us out a little bit You know it’s been uh it’s been a quite a bit of a rugpull um compared
to what we were expecting not just for crypto but everyone in the markets right now at least those
who hold financial assets of any description Okay All right So uh President Trump if you’re watching
I’ll make a deal with you Uh if Bitcoin goes below uh 68K or the level it was on the 4th of November
before you won the election if it goes below that you’re going on the wall of shame permanently
And trust me when you’re on there permanently it’s very difficult It’s worse Yeah exactly Yeah
If you if you hold off on the tariffs and pull us out the tail spin then all will be forgiven Um
no opinion polls or Fox opinion pieces can match anything to do with the Coin Bureau wall of shame
to be fair Yeah So you know you’ve messed with the rest of the world but you mess with Coin Bureau
at your peril Just Just saying Just saying Okay Uh who’s on the wall of fame Nick The wall of fame
is the poor penguins man They’ve stood up They’ve stood up They went to the White House They tried
to negotiate with Trump but they Trump said and Van said to them “Have you said thank you Have you
said thank you for all those fish we’ve sent you You guys over there you penguins and seals you
know you des laughing at us Look you know as I say no humans have been there for 10 years We
don’t know how advanced those penguins and seals are Yeah that’s true They could they could have
they could have developed the bomb by evolved considerably Yeah And developed the bomb and Yeah
Don’t mess with them man Reciprocation incoming Absolutely Absolutely Nuclear powered submarines
going in Yeah You think China’s retaliation is bad Wait till you see what what the penguins and
seals have Happy feet going to kill you guys Okay let’s now look ahead So um crypto in Q2
Crypto in Q1 it wasn’t great was it Not too good guy No Started well Started well Yes And
got got off to a bang Got and that bang turned out to be a bomb Yeah Um it really uh Yeah it
really has been a tough Q1 So the question is is Q2 going to be going to be any better hasn’t
got off to the best of starts but we thought we’d look ahead just have a look at some of the sort
of cryptospecific conditions Obviously as I said earlier this is very much tied to the tariff
regime and how other countries react to it But like I said there is good news in crypto out there
You’ve just got to look damn hard for it We’ve got to look Exactly Yeah I put on some my uh you
know um under a microscope Maybe we can find some good news Um obviously well historical press
first of all Bitcoin dominance continues its rise right So obviously it’s looking good for Bitcoin
relative to altcoins still how much more this momentum can go on I mean obviously Benjamin
K will have Ben Khan will have an opinion on this Um Bitcoin is showing that dominance and
strength So right now it seems like Bitcoin is a safer bet However looking at it historically
from historical precedent Q2 has been a strong period for risk assets Bitcoin has delivered
decent Q2 gains in past cycles Notably in Q2 2020 it jumped by 42% 2019 it jumped by 159% and
in 2017 it rallied by 132% So Q2 has historically been a good quarter although you know so was Q1
but you know we’re hopeful We’re hopeful Um and there was this interesting report from Coinbase
Institutional Research Um although I will again caveat that this was before Liberation Day Happy
days of March the 17th Those were the days Do you remember Do you remember that day Colors are so
much more bright and the flowers are so beautiful Sun was always shining on the 17th of March 2024
We’ve transition to grayscale Um but yeah well to be honest there were some very good points
that was raised by this report and that’s why I thought it’d be important to bring it up Um
obviously um despite the recent struggles the outlook they said remains constructive in Q2 as
liquidity is improved and that is true everyone as we know one of the most important factors of
Bitcoin’s price and indeed the price of most risk assets is the liquidity cycle global liquidity
and that has been growing um and we can look take a look at the considered liquidity cycle here from
a chart in the Coinbase report uh there we can see so it’s starting to turn obviously the Fed has
p is going to pause quantitive tightening and um they may be forced to if the if the debt
ceiling is raised potentially to buy debt from the treasury which would be easing quantitive
easing there’s talk about quantitive easing now more than ever even though the Fed has explicitly
ruled it out until rates are at zero We’ve talked about the rates coming down in terms of potential
rate cuts Um and the administration’s stated focus is obviously bringing down the 10-year yield
which has been coming down Um and it hints at more support for the markets and correlation has
also fallen Yeah And until yesterday evening the correlation seemed like it had almost completely
decoupled But uh as I say it was too good to be true Yeah That’s interesting about the 10-year
yield because this is one of the things this is one of the arguments for the fact that Trump is
maybe playing 3D or 4D chess or whatever it is The fact that you know on in his last term he wanted
to be judged on the markets This time what he wants to do is get the 10-year yield down because
of all this debt that needs to be refinanced this year They basically want to refinance it under
more favorable conditions That is a theory that I’ve seen and it seemed to be a reasonable theory
if you thought that Scott Bessant was still in the driving seat But there are better ways to get the
tenure down than completely sending the economy into a depression and sending risk assets down
10 trillion dollars of wealth eliminated Yeah I mean so there are better ways to bring it down in
terms of reducing fiscal spending like the things that’s happening with Doge etc Altseason guy what
do you think What are your pros What do you think the prospects are for QT old season Okay alt
season I’m going to propose that we put a little bit of a moratorum on the word alt season I think
we just I think we just put that on ice for maybe the next couple of months or so because kind of
like the ice age you know after the the meteorite hits and I you know alism was delayed for a few
centuries Maybe in a few thousand years you know I Yeah a few thousand years may be a little
a little bearish Well in crypto years bro you know in crypto years crypto years two years to
wait for the alt season you’ll probably be dead by But um but I think Yeah I mean alt season I
think now it’s as you as you pointed out Bitcoin dominance is rising Bitcoin I think for you know
investors kind of outside of crypto is if you like it probably going to be the only asset they’re
looking at Um I think alts are going to continue to struggle unless we get unless the Fed turns
on the printer Exactly So my that’s that’s my theory as well I think that until when monetary
stimulus comes uh it is going to lead to lots of risk assets rallying Um you’re not going to as
I’ve always maintained you’re not going to see the same kind of 2021 altcoin season when the entire
altcoin complex rallied I don’t think Bitcoin dominance is going to come down again easily but
there are definitely going to be some altcoins that are going to definitely outperform Bitcoin
um individually And that’s why I still think that you know you shouldn’t want you shouldn’t not all
hope is lost in terms of alt season And that’s why important if you think that there are attractive
priced altcoins right now It’s been beaten down a lot I’m not saying buy I’m just saying keep a
watch on it because if we do get that monetary stimulus there will be flowing down the risk curve
the rotation as usually is the case into although I think they’ll skip over ETH but uh you know guys
held and I’d hope that they’re going to go down the normal rotation route You just couldn’t resist
it I just couldn’t resist it I’m sorry All right Well there is talking of alts and talking of
alt season There is kind of Morgan news um on that front because Paul Atkins Trump’s pick for
the SEC uh his confirmation hearing in I believe it was the Senate um went through I I think it’s
probably as as pretty nailed on that Paul Atkins is going to be confirmed as the new head of the
SEC Now did you um did you listen to last week’s chopping block Unfortunately I did not manage to
No Okay So the guys there Hib your friend um they had a really interesting conversation with Ha Pur
Hester Pierce um the SEC commissioner Crypto Mom Crypto Mom Yeah Um and that was that was a really
refreshing conversation because she was quite open about you know the failings under the failings
under the previous regime Obviously she was very diplomatic about it but it really seems like the
SEC has completely 180 on crypto Now Paul Atkins from what Ha was saying is very much you know
on the same page as she is So although we’ve got this crippling tariff regime screwing everything
up fundamentally one of the big overhangs from from previous years has gone The SEC is much more
favorably inclined towards crypto now much more favorably inclined towards innovation Um so you
know this is this is really good news but we need to ride out adverse um macroeconomic conditions
before that can the effects of that can really be felt We’ve also got two stable coin bills
making their way through Congress Uh there’s the Genius Act and the Stable Act The Stable
Genius Act Stable Genius That’s a good one Um so was word about Trump Trump himself Yeah Yeah
But was that meant to be Do you think that they they work together Do you think that it can’t
be that much of a coincidence I’ve heard this debated It’s sort of like Yeah it does seem like
it would be a bit of a coincidence Too much of a coincidence Yeah So it could be the stable genius
act Who knows if I because I don’t we we don’t know which one’s going to pass I think one of them
in particular is is a bit more is is a bit tighter when it comes to I think the genius is more likely
to come through The genius not the stable one Yeah Just sorry to stocks have opened right now about
6 minutes ago Okay take a guess how far the S&P is down In percentage terms I’m going to say cheeky
5% Okay luckily not as bad as that 4% right now 4% Okay Okay I mean that’s that’s still bad We’re now
in bare market territory That’s technically bare market territory The correction the correction
and Bitcoin to be fair is a 76400 So you know that’s what’s interesting because Bitcoin
is usually just seen as a trade that’s can be made when the market hours aren’t open right
So it’s already been selling off together with the others with the other stocks and the other
markets as well as the futures So but anyways yeah So and there is one piece of good news
going for you definitely Um on the May the 7th uh we’ve got Ethereum is finalizing the PRA
upgrade So the hope all hope you know there we go Wish upon a star Your altcoin dreams are riding
on the 7th of May The pectra is coming mate Listen just because I just because I still hold some
ETH I don’t stand you know I’m not the sort of archetypal soy boy you know you know don’t is that
the is that the the message Is that what you Let me tell you when ETH recovers I will be I will be
rubbing it in your face Um okay So in conclusion uh to the Q2 crypto for Q2 then what do we where
do we feel Do we think do we think we’re going to be up at the end of Q2 I think Bitcoin is going to
be up by the end of Q2 Bitcoin dominance is going to be up by the end of Q2 even from these levels
You think even I think it’s I think definitely because I think that the liquidity is going to
still flow into Bitcoin and there will be rotation but there will be other altcoins I’m not going
to say any right now but I think that definitely there will be a lot of some altcoins that will
definitely be up right um and um some of them could even be outperforming Bitcoin potentially
by the end of Q2 but um as a collectively I think altcoins you know altcoins itself compared
to Bitcoin could still be struggling against Bitcoin’s dominance Um and I still think that ETH
beat well I don’t know ETH BTC I know I know I [ __ ] on ETH a lot I think you know it’s beaten
up a lot um but yeah it’s difficult right because it’s it’s rallying it’s against Bitcoin right yeah
so look I I’ll admit it is very difficult to see positive catalysts for ETH now Petra upgrade
notwithstanding like it is in a tough spot I yeah I I I’m agree with you broadly I I wonder how
much further um BTC dominance can go but another I guess another an interesting thing to watch would
be uh stable coin that’s true market something that may impact on that it’ll be interesting to
see Bitcoin versus the others which is non-stable coin altcoins because I think stable coin uh
growth is definitely going to continue flying uh and that’s important for liquidity anyways um now
of course if you guys are feeling a bit ambitious than the bin bag Yeah it’s an upgrade for sure I
uh I got this from the Coin Bureau merch Oh the Oh Coin Bureau merch store That’s great Yeah This is
also where I got my uh got my Bitcoin That is lit Yeah It’s very It’s nice and minimalist isn’t
it What What does it taste like Uh what is it What’s inside there Well um uh Ethere It was hot
bobble and now it’s Eith holders tears Hot bobble That’s exactly what you hear from a Brit Hot
bottle Who on earth drinks hot barville What It’s It’s popular in South Africa I have You know
there’s no Is there B Oh yes of course Sorry Who drinks B I don’t I’ve never heard of drinking
pot brav in my life What are you talking about You make We’re straight from the fact Nick we’re
trying to shill the coin merch store And here you are talking about bvil for goodness sake Just get
it back on track Should we put bottle in the coin merch store Yeah Coinbl Fine No but the coin be
merch store has got live Not just that they’ve also Let’s put up on the screen You know we’ve
got uh hardware wallets We’ve got water bottles We’ve got ETH doormats We’ve got um Sheba Unu dogs
as well No sorry Nick That’s just a scarf for the dog The dog is not included Oh it’s not inh dog
not included Okay Very important But you know if your dog is bullish then we’ve got just the
thing for you Fantastic Okay let’s have a look at last week’s top performing cryptos There are
top performing cryptos last week They were some of some cryptos have had a decent week Although I
should say that when I looked the uh the the the number five came in with a gain of less than 1% So
that kind of gives you an idea of where we are I’m surprised I’m good So let’s start off Uh the first
top performer last week was Fartcoin Something I never heard yet And do you know like it it
was hard to pinpoint an exact reason but it it might have something to do with Peter Schiff Yes
that Peter Schiff uh tweeting we need a Fartcoin strategic reserve Obviously he’s uh he’s trolling
there but I guess you know Fcoin is a sort of meme coin you know it’s it kind of trades off attention
so that could have helped Yeah And hot air indeed does rise So yeah I mean it’s going you know a
sound strategy from Peter Schiff Yeah Speaking of hot air uh next on the list is EOS Again this is I
think EOS’s second week in a row top performer but they vault I think they so they haven’t changed
on Coin Market Cap Yeah still EOS on Coin Market Cap What’s interesting is that their ex account
has been suspended That’s very suspicious Very suspicious So that’s uh EOS/Va or whatever Uh
next up we have SPX6900 Um again is this a kind of inverse on the actual you know on on the on the
actual S&P I think it could be I mean um this is the cult coin This is one of Murad’s cult coins
right Yeah Um again interestingly its X account has also been suspended It’s been suspended for
quite some time though now Yeah I think so I think the last time we checked it was also suspended So
the fact that it’s still growing in the community the fact that it’s they’re catching bids now you
know it’s like okay well you know the community strong Okay Uh next up well an exchange token uh
OKB from uh from the fine folks at OKX Um must have been a lot of people panic selling their bags
on OKX Yes Train volume I suppose Yeah exactly Um and then finally this is an interesting one
Cosmos’s Atom Now that’s something I never thought I’d hear you hear on a coin view live The
ine these Cosmos stable the atom stable coin Yeah it’s uh it enjoyed a good week last week Although
I mean it’s only just uh only just scraped into Yeah it says one Well it says 1% down Yeah On
this chart so that’s not a gainer That’s a good week Well it was g over the week Over the seven
days it gained but it says one it says it’s down by 2% on the seven days Are you trying Are you
trying a bad week Okay stop It’s not officially a gainer Find the negatives Nick It’s not a gainer
You changed the definition of a gain Okay so maybe it’s changed I’d love to see the P&L if you
think I would love to see the gains you claim to make all the time If you think a loss is a gain
sometimes sometimes a small loss is feels like a gain in crypto What can I say Um I don’t know The
pump it seemed the pump it uh experienced before uh before running out of steam It might have
something to do with Nillian’s launch Nillian um a project we’ve invested in that is uh that is built
using Cosmos Tech Exactly Yeah Also launched in a very difficult to market environment but it’s very
interesting project no doubt the privacycentric layer one There’s also quite a lot of uh
development happening on the on the Cosmos network in general We’ll have to get cryptoc Yeah Um okay
let’s now have a look at some tweets of the week So let’s start with this one from uh D uh from
Jeff Park Okay Can you explain what’s going on Yeah So this obviously Jeff Park he’s the head
of Alpha Strategies at Bitwire Bitwise asset management Um I’ve spoken to him before
in an interview Very very very smart guy And the TLDDR basically is he’s explaining the
fundamental flaw in the art of the deal is that it assumes negotiation is a simple bilateral
game One winner one loser one closed loop transaction And what he’s basically saying here
is that global trade obviously is multivariable system with shifting incentives all these kinds
of things And obviously you cannot be viewing it as just one singular deal that you’re making
with one singular party in in a real estate transaction for example There are so many trade
deals globally and you’re messing with a very complex system Okay Yeah Yeah It’s trying Yeah
trying to apply a rather simplistic formula to complicated situation Yeah Okay Uh next we have I
love the Vance memes They’ve really they’ve really brought joy to my soul Have you said thank you
once Have you seen the me the one with him with the curly hair Oh yeah It’s really It’s really
morphing out of control It’s very disconcerting Yeah Okay Uh next we have this one from Zack V Uh
you’ve got to feel bad for Zoomers Tariffs killed drop shipping Tik Tok ban is still looming Meme
coins are down 98% This is their [ __ ] great depression Is this true This is memecoin This
is memecoin Pearl Harbor man Yeah this is Yeah memecoin Pearl Harbor Okay next up uh Bill Aman
Um big finance bro I just figured out why Howard Lutnik is indifferent to the stock market and the
economy crashing He and Caner are long bonds He profits when our economy implodes Taking shots
there to be true But although I mean I think I don’t think Bill would have been complaining
if there was a commerce secretary who was uh long stocks and then encouraging the Fed to
pump money into the system or that kind of stuff So he’s talking his book and he he was a big Trump
supporter prior to this right you know Well also I mean he’s no fool He knows that you know even in
market conditions like this there are winners and losers Okay there’s probably more losers at the
moment but there are there are always winners to be as one of the comments here says I just one
of the comments most um any Manhattan bartender knows that bond people and equity people celebrate
on different days Yeah Yeah Very true Okay And uh another tweet of the week is this one from Gintab
They called him Sleepy Joe because he could sleep all night on your position No problem It we did
have a good good night’s rest most of the time in the past right You know it has been stressful It
has been difficult Do you remember just how boring the White House was Like you know leaving aside
any sort of uh political allegiances or anything like that the difference between the Biden White
House I mean you you especially early on in his term you could almost forget that it existed To
be honest I don’t think Biden was doing much I mean to be fair he was just not he was run by
his team and whatnot but you know it was like just ticking over It’s fine You could no stress
you know So chilled Yeah Here literally weeks What’s that Vladimir Lenon saying It’s like um
uh Oh there are there are decades when nothing happens and then weeks when decades happen Correct
Yeah exactly That’s what’s happening here It’s crazy Yeah we’re in the we’re in the middle of
history folks We’re in the eye of the storm It’s uh it’s kind of windy Okay Any coins to watch for
this weekend Well I’m going to say everything guys to be honest because if you as we come back to the
point around potentially undervalued alts if you are thinking and you’ve been eyeing any particular
altcoin you know now we could be looking at levels where it’s so beaten down that maybe feeling a
bit peckish I’m not saying anyone’s in particular All I’m saying is that um generally when there
is blood in the streets there could be a good time Okay Okay Well there’s certainly blood
in the streets Um some dates for the diary So April 9th uh which is on Wednesday I believe
Um yep That’s going to be the FOMC minutes will been released although to be fair I think this
was the before the tariffs Um and um that’s going to updated It’s going to update a lot It’s not
going to really be very relevant Not really the refreshed option Um and then on April 10th the CPI
We’ve got the CPI important data point Obviously uh the 2.5% is a forecast So there’s forecasting
lower CPI year-over-year and versus 2.8% um previously and then of course core at 3% and
previous 3.1% So the economists are forecast and at least the last time I checked or we checked uh
it to have come down So let’s see Okay Okay And then um I think on Friday by that point the way
everything’s going that’ll probably be when World War II kicks off and it Oh yeah of course Yeah
Yeah Rolling over you know it will go absolutely insane Trump attacking the McDonald’s and Herd
Islands Yeah Trump invades the Herd and McDonald Islands There we go Okay let’s have a look at some
of the uh the comments that you lovely people have been leaving But most of you are most of you are
lovely people Um some not so lovely people there Uh Guy there is no wind in the eye of the storm
All right It’s just a it’s just a figure of speech Just instant correct Guy you [ __ ] Instant
correct guy Why are you so stupid Do you not know your ge your geography You know you know have
you not seen that twister Climatology Um uh Nick in the chat also uh quoting you Nick or quoting
you quoting someone else Misery loves company Yeah misery does need love company Uh Pocaholo
Poco Loco agency is asking can we see BTC below 70K Still at an average price of 50K So opening
limit orders Could could we go below 70K I think it’s possible It’s possible It’s possible but I
wouldn’t I wouldn’t bet on it No Okay I think most people have said that potentially if we’re going
to go down uh 70 low 70k is the potential bottom that have people have flagged but you never know
what happens in it Okay Uh Muji says “I survived 2022 Nothing can break me now.” That’s true man
That is that that is a sentiment Forged in steel Forged in steel The whitest heat tempers the
finest metal Diamond pressure Diamond hands You know let’s just hope those aren’t famous last
words Can you imagine Yeah 2022 Yeah Um okay Uh Dirty Dan says “Sailor rubbing his hands like
a fly right now.” Oh yeah Well I mean yeah Why did he buy Is he going to buy I mean he’s got He
should have the money I think I think he still has some left from the uh 2121 strategy Yeah I I would
imagine Sailor will probably come out and announce a buy in time for next week’s in time for next
week’s stream Um okay Uh some people saying that the EU has just offered a trade deal Um we’ll have
to sort of dig into that and see I mean I think I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see some offers on
the table I think the EU was being quite sort of um belligerent on it wasn’t it It was being
belligerent but I guess the end of this day is you know even if they’re offering trade
deals that’s not as far as I understand it’s what Trump has telegraphed and what Howard Lutnik
has telegraphed The goal is not to get necessarily trade deals It’s to basically reshore eur American
manufacturing that will require these tariffs to remain in place So if that you can’t have okay
what do you want is you want a favorable trade deal but some of these countries don’t have any
tariffs at all So there’s what’s to give right Yeah So what’s the deal So I don’t know if they’re
necessarily um they’re basically lining up their their talking points correctly Yeah And in terms
of manufacturing as well I mean I I don’t want to spend too too much longer on tariffs but I kind of
feel like this idea of of bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US or back to any of these
kind of western nations that lost them I mean are we not talking about a sector that’s being
increasingly automated You know there’s so much talk about AI and robotics now like man if you’re
bringing back manufacturing jobs are you not just trying to bring back something that is kind of
dying anyway Exactly Yeah that’s the question right I mean so who are these people I think even
Howard Lutnik said something to the effect of AI is going to be able to produce which means that
you on what is the goal here if it’s not where are the people who were going to be working in
manufacturing going to be working Are they going to be working in tech Yeah Yeah And and I mean it
reminds me of an anecdote I read just a few days ago Apparently um Joe uh no um Barack Obama
met with Steve Jobs sort of early in Obama’s presidency had dinner with him and said “Look
what what will it take for you to manufacture for you to bring iPhone manufacturing to the United
States rather than doing it in China?” And I think uh Jobs just you know broke the numbers down
for him and said “Look you cannot you cannot pay American workers what we pay the workers in
China because they just won’t accept it That is why you will never see the iPhone being made in
the USA unfortunately Um okay Uh this is uh ST STP says uh this is the kind of crash smart
investors wait for This is so true This is so true And I think that yeah on a risk return
basis right now Bitcoin could be very at very attractive levels Look no one’s going to tell you
I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next today or indeed the next over the next week What
I can definitely say is over the next few months it would all be made clear Coming back to the
question of all roads lead to money printing All roads lead to additional liquidity coming into the
system because the Fed is going to have to step in right already there talk they go into China just
announced monetary stim frontloading the monetary stimulus other countries are going to follow
suit Europe is going with these massive fiscal spending packages That’s all global liquidity
flooding into the system So if I’m looking out to the end of Q2 if I’m looking out to the end of
the year I still think it’s one of the best risk return opportunities right now Interesting Okay
so Nick is long-term bullish I must say I’m I’m tempted to agree Uh Cury Bore says “Sure glad
I sold all of my crypto back in November.” All right well done Well done Um if you didn’t see if
you weren’t up to speed with the morning routine uh meme that was all the rage last week then
this will probably look awful Guy rubbing his bananas over Nick’s face when he hits 5K If Yeah
just you you have to if you know You don’t want to picture that bro Jesus Um and then there was
some discussion about bil as well Um static vers the shop My favorite beefy bell sandwich includes
cheese and acha Achar is a special type of I know Acha Durban Isn’t that Durban stuff Right It’s
Durban Yeah Acha Yeah Okay I believe there was I I believe there was then some support expressed
in the comments in general for achar So bullish achar Bullish achar Let’s go for the strategic
achar reserve That’s what we that’s what we really need Um Orino Ecomp says “All roads related
to Bitcoin All roads are blocked by tariffs Mind you Bruno Olivea agrees with you Nick Exactly
Liquidity is coming Sure Bullish is the way.” Yeah man Amen Okay Yeah Money printer comes man
The money printer will get Brace yourself Money printer is coming Yeah Um we’ll leave the last
word to Boris Leav Uh please don’t talk about guy’s banana Thank Yeah Absolutely agreed All
right folks Thank you for watching this week It is going to be it’s been an interesting week
so far and it’s only Monday It’s going to be uh a tough week I think there’s going to be a lot of
volatility around Prices are going to probably be quite painful but hey at least it’s at least it’s
fun At least it’s interesting right At least Yeah At least at least it is interesting I wouldn’t say
fun but it’s interesting It sure is interesting We’re learning a lot guy Yeah These are the sort
of times you’ll tell your grandchildren about if you make it that far Um so thank you all for
watching Mhm We will be back same time same place next week We’ll see you then Cheers guys The
idea unboxing videos is going to be the next James Bond It looks like a allseeing meme trader on
a phone call Hello there Hello there General Kenobi Coin bureau More suits No more
criminal bro Hello there General Kenobi coin zero more suits No more cracker bro [Music]
I I thought that was a good one What did you think Old chap That was a smashing stream guy Well
done I enjoyed it I thought it was great The only problem I have right I hate having to put
on that stupid English accent for the streams I can’t stand it I don’t know why we ever made
that decision How on earth did they think you’re a bloody Brit I mean you’re so bloody uncouthed
unrefined Speak for yourself Borsh boy I can’t believe it I can’t believe they think you’re
a sapper You were a disgrace to that nation
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