There is no denying ETH’s poor performance in
recent months. And meanwhile, BTC has made it into six-figure territory, and institutional bulls
still see $150,000 plus for digital gold this year. Even so, big players keep nibbling at ETH.
NASDAQ listed Sharp Link Gaming recently spent $463 million, accumulating 176,000 ETH for their
treasury. BTC may have stolen the show this cycle, but there’s clearly still some deep demand
for ETH. So, today we’re looking at ETH price predictions from some of the most prominent
forecasters and considering whether they’re being too optimistic or too harsh on this cycle’s
lagard. My name is Guy. Stay tuned. Okay, before we start, a quick heads up. Although we’re looking
at price predictions today, I am not a financial adviser and this isn’t financial advice. We’re
just sharing info for education and entertainment. So, always do your own research before investing.
Now, there’s no tiptoeing around this. We’ll have to start with the scoreboard. Yes, the ETH
BTC ratio, which just clawed back to 0.023 after plummeting to a 5-year low of 0.017 017 in
April, leaving ETH still down 35% versus BTC year to date. And this disparity is clear in US spot
ETF flows. BTC products have attracted $49 billion in cumulative net inflows compared to just $4
billion for the ETH equivalents. To be fair, given that BTC makes up 65% of the total crypto market
cap, it’s natural to see it draw significantly more capital. So, while $4 billion isn’t exactly
headline grabbing, it’s still a meaningful figure. Also, the bid for ETH is clearly creeping back
as corporate entities are starting to accumulate much larger sums of ETH for their treasuries. As
mentioned in the introduction, Sharlink now holds a record 88,000 ETH following its latest purchase.
At the time of making this video, 10 corporate entities currently hold ETH in their treasuries
with Coinbase and Bit Digital in second and third place behind Sharlink with 115,000 and 24,000 ETH
respectively. But third place in that ranking will soon be held by Bitcoin mining firm Bitmine, which
just announced it had completed a $250 million private placement to kickstart its ETH treasury.
Speaking in a CNBC interview, Bitmine chairman Thomas Lee placed a lot of emphasis on stablecoin
growth as the main driver behind the firm’s bet on ETH, saying, quote, “The financial services
industry and crypto are converging.” And it really started with stable coins because of viral
adoption by consumers, businesses, and banks. So given all the hype, you might be asking, why is
ETH lagging so hard then? Well, for one thing, Msari pegs annualized mainet fee revenue at just
$670 million, down 73% versus 2024, while Ether Scan data shows daily ETH burn collapsing 99%
from last year’s peaks. Now, you may attribute ETH’s fall in revenue to the rise in popularity
of other chains such as Salana in recent years, and that’s certainly a big part of it. However,
the problem becomes a bit clearer when we consider the activity on Ethereum’s scaling solutions.
While the Ethereum mainet remains the leading chain for TVL, activity is exploding further
down the ecosystem. Ethereum layer 2 rollups now consistently process around 11x more transactions
per second than Ethereum itself. So, all of that is to say that Ethereum is busier than ever,
but earning a lot less per bite. Nevertheless, some deep pocketed buyers are stepping in despite
a foggy future with respect to Ethereum’s market position. But how are traders positioned given
this dynamic? Well, despite the ongoing story of ETH’s underperformance, ETH futures on the Chicago
Merkantile Exchange or CME have consistently exhibited a premium versus BTC over recent
weeks, signaling positive ETH demand from market participants widely considered to be smarter money
than the perp trading cryptonative apes we know and love. Meanwhile, the options market paints an
overall bullish story, too. Investors are paying to fence off near-term downside as puts are priced
a bit richer than calls. Yet, the biggest money is quietly parked in December calls that would
pay out if ETH can reclaim the $3,000 handle and in a stretch scenario double in price. So, in
summary then, ETH flows are modest but positive. Fundamentals look bruised, but leverage traders
are arming for higher ETH prices ahead, although they’re also paying for downside protection. That
split personality backdrop sets the stage for the interesting range of price targets we’re about
to explore, beginning with the most bullish on the street. If you ask the most optimistic asset
managers deeply involved in the crypto space, 2025 will see ETH begin to drag itself out of
the shadow that BTC has cast this bull run. VANC plants its flag above $6,000 at the cycle’s
top. A December 2024 note from the firm states that Ethereum macro and micro catalysts are set to
converge in a solid year for Ethereum. Vanek also anticipated new spot crypto ETPs for ETH which we
now have and also anticipates approval for staking and inkind redemptions which will act as further
bullish catalysts for ETH. Along with expected stable coin and DeFi growth, Vanek is confident
that the market will repric ETH in a reflexive manner. For some additional context, Vanek also
folds in a base case assumption that Bitcoin tops around $180,000, which would see the ETH BTC
ratio at around 0.033. The highest marquee number for ETH in 2025, though comes from Arc Invest,
which pegs a trillion dollar market cap scenario, roughly $8,000 per ETH, primarily referring to the
likelihood of ETH ETF staking approval and a Trump era regulatory reset, ushering in major industry
growth. A 2024 report from Arc Invest stated that quote, “Our research suggests that as an
asset, ETH is beginning to develop attributes in the digital asset space similar to those
of US Treasury bills.” Then going on to state that RWA tokenization will push large pools of
short duration cash onto the chain. Keep that note in mind for later. So, taken together, these
asset managers sketch a bullish band from $6 to $8,000 for ETH. However, you may notice that these
numbers, which do not imply fresh all-time highs, are not even double the previous all-time high
of around $4,900 back in 2021. In other words, even the optimistic asset managers aren’t
promising the kind of moves they expect for BTC, at least for the short to midterm. That restraint
will matter when we stack their models against cooler projections we’re set to discuss later
in the video. But at this stage of the video, you won’t scroll far through crypto Twitter
without coming across something from BitMX founder Arthur Hayes. A true crypto native, having
essentially ushered in per futures to the crypto industry, he remains a staunch ETH bull. Speaking
on Bankless back in May, he called Ethereum quote the most hated L1. Precisely why he argues
it’s primed for a reflexive rip towards $5,000 once sentiment flips. Hayes believes the market’s
repricing of other L1 coins versus ETH has largely run its course. He also sees the hatred as fertile
ground for upside from the $5,000 price tag that he believes can come this year. He sketches a
reflexive road map. Crack the old all-time high, ignite momentum traders, and a flywheel effect
could spin ETH over $10,000 if liquidity conditions permit. Now, liquidity is the key piece
to the puzzle as far as Hayes is concerned, and he expects a fresh flood of global liquidity to wash
over the market. In recent essays and interviews, Hayes has pointed to a likely Fed balance sheet
expansion, Treasury buybacks, and a China stimulus volley as the Tinder that could spark off all
risk assets. He argues that ETH will elastic band harder simply because sentiment is still so
depressed. Hayes also considers the PETRA upgrade, which shipped in May of this year, to be a
step forward for Ethereum. Petra is regarded by some as the kind of user-friendly tweak that
reignited Salana’s summer of 2024. Of course, Hayes concedes that there are risks, not least of
all if central banks blunder as they navigate a complex macro climate. Still, the playbook is
clear. Buy the chain everyone is dunking on, frontr run the inevitable narrative flip, and
wait for liquidity to flow and bulls to take over. video, but not everyone shares his contrarian
zeal. That optimism sets the stage for the cooler and much lower price targets. Late last
year, Standard Chartered’s digital assets desk made headlines with a chestthumping $10,000 ETH
call, right in line with Hayes’s longerterm view and the sort of round number optimism you expect
when a new bull run is rumbling. 3 months later, the same team released a far more somber note
bluntly titled, quote, Ethereum midlife crisis and swung the axe to their previous projections. The
2025 target was cut by 60% to $4,000, a level that pales next to their own BTC forecast of $150,000
plus. And I’m sure you also noticed that this revised price target sits $900 below Ethereum’s
November 2021 all-time high. In other words, the forecaster that sees BTC doubling its 2021
highs believes that ETH will fall short of its last top by about 20%. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of
digital assets research at Standard, points to a quote structural bleed in Ethereum’s economics.
L2s such as base arbitum optimism and many more now settle the lion share of user activity
while paying only scraps in fees. Standard Charted estimates that this value leakage has
removed roughly $50 billion in aggregate market capitalization from ETH by throttling mainet burn
and pushing block space demand into cheaper silos. The bank’s discounted cash flow framework had
assumed base layer fee revenue would sore in 2025, but the reality was not such a pretty picture with
annualized revenue now tracking $670 million, down at more than 70% from 2024 levels. As mentioned
earlier, Standard also stresses that even in a scenario where US spot ETF issuers win permission
to stake holdings, a significant portion of the incremental yield would be absorbed in fees and
custody costs, diminishing the impact the staking yield would have. Competitive pressure, meanwhile,
compounds the maths. Standard Chartered also highlighted Salana’s RWA push, a partnership with
enterprise blockchain firm R3 that brings HSBC, Bank of America, and Euroclear onto Salana’s
rails. Tron is also named a threat after it posted 760 million in fees for Q1, eclipsing Ethereum
for the first time. The conclusion, Ethereum’s network supremacy premium is eroding precisely
at the moment its fee engine is sputtering. Now, secondary reports also discuss best-case
scenarios issued by Standard in their research note. If rollups grow generously and funnel more
sequencer profit back to the Ethereum base layer, the model lifts its ETH target to $5,400.
But that still leaves ETH only 10% above its previous all-time high and well below the $6 to
$8,000 band touted by the likes of Vanek and ARK. It all sounds a bit grim, but Standard Charted are
not alone in slashing their ETH price predictions. Back in December 2024, Bitwise’s research team
grabbed headlines with a flashy $7,000 ETH target in its 10 crypto predictions for 2025 deck.
The logic was straightforward. Spot ETF inflows would swell to roughly $30 billion with each
incremental $1 billion adding 3 to 5% to price. stable coin settlement on Ethereum would double
and the first wave of US corporates would start holding ETH on their balance sheets. Add
those inputs together and Bitwise argued momentum would shoot ETH to new highs. Fast
forward a few months later and the song has changed. Just a couple of weeks ago, Bitwise
head of research Ryan Rasmmerson told the Milk Road podcast that the firm’s ETH call was cut 35%
to $4,500 below ETH’s 2021 peak and $2,500 below the original forecast. It’s also worth noting
that Bitwise trimmed its sole target as well, while leaving its $200,000 BTC view untouched.
But why the revision for ETH? Well, Raasmuson cited three pressure points. First and foremost,
spot ETH ETFs underdelivered. Bitwise’s base case assumed US spot ETH ETFs would absorb $30 billion
in their first 18 months. As it stands, they have only seen a little over $4 billion in net inflows.
Secondly, Rasmuson notes sluggish retail demand and lackluster inflow of fresh capital. Well,
I don’t think you need Mr. Rasmuson or indeed anyone else to convince you of that. And finally,
Bitwise raises concerns about macro and regulatory fog. The firm has highlighted trade tensions and
the delayed progress on ETF staking as drags on sentiment. Although that last part has certainly
seen a sharp turnaround since those concerns were voiced with US regulators giving the go-ahead for
Salana spot ETFs to incorporate staking at launch. The ETH equivalent is therefore expected sooner
rather than later. Much like Standard Charted and others, Bitwise is also concerned about Ethereum’s
fee revenue taking a massive hit. With mainet currently earning roughly $2 million per day, it
would need to raise that by three times just to get back to 2024 levels. Now, the bearishleaning
reasoning goes on, but Bitwise stops short of a doom and gloom stance. It still argues that
returning to the $4,500 level is perfectly achievable even in a muddled macro tape. However,
these underall-time high price targets cast a long shadow over the bullish narrative we heard
from the more optimistic crowd. But such a blunt evaluation of ETH struggles begs the question,
what about the outright bearish scenario for ETH? Well, ETH has historically enjoyed a blue chip
status that largely rested on a simple idea. If banks, fund managers, and governments ever engage
with crypto and settle on public rails, they will default to the network with the strongest
security and deepest liquidity. However, an increasing number of analysts in the space argue
that this cycle has simply nullified this thesis. In March, RWA tokenization giant Securitize with
a reported $4 billion plus on chain teamed up with CDI project Athena Labs and unveiled an EVM
compatible L1 built specifically for institutions. Converge promises to be quote the settlement
layer for traditional finance and digital dollars. A pretty direct positioning to compete
with Ethereum’s traditional value proposition. Converge promises sub 100 millisecond blocks
KYC gated smart contracts and native gas paid in Athena’s own stable coins all while keeping
every penny of fees and me inside its walled garden. Its road map pitches a converge validator
network backed by staked ENA so that governance, economics, and security stay inhouse rather
than bleeding to Ethereum miners or stakers. If the biggest RWA services can spin up their
own high throughput chains in weeks, well, the value proposition of paying L1 gas on mainet
starts to look like a luxury tax. And this shift is also happening outside of the EVM environment.
As mentioned earlier, R3 stewards of more than $10 billion in tokenized assets for clients including
HSBC and Bank of America announced in May that its permission platform will bridge directly to
Salana. VANC has itself spun up VIL, a multi-chain tokenized US treasury fund. Meanwhile, tokenized
stocks from RWA firm backed just went live on both Kraken and Bybit as these sexes continue expanding
their platforms. Though I will note these tokenized RWAS are also on Salana. In addition to
that, trading platform giant Robin Hood officially launched a slew of crypto ventures including
tokenized stocks and its own L2. The firm stated, quote, “In the future, tokenized stocks will
be facilitated by our very own Robin Hood layer 2 blockchain based on Arbitum.” Now, this is
a non-exhaustive list of examples, but the message is clear. institutions and high-grade RWAS no
longer need Ethereum’s fee profile or its cultural heft. Due to the unbundling of blockchains and
modular structures, anyone can spin up their own ecosystem. As we’ve looked at in this video, these
shifts come just as Ethereum’s own cash engine is sputtering with base layer revenue at 30% of what
it was a year prior. L2 activity is booming, but the pay rent upstairs not downstairs model means
Ethereum’s L1 sees only crumbs of that growth. If Converge style enclaves and alt EVM rails siphon
off more capital, there may be no obvious catalyst to revise mainet burn or staking yield, let
alone ETH’s price. Stack that reality against the official forecasts we’ve heard, and the picture
isn’t so pretty for the more optimistic ones. Arc Invest’s target of $8,000 relied on very strong
spot ETF inflows and major DeFi growth to match. Meanwhile, VanX $6,000 target relied on Ethereum’s
revenue shooting up, hoping for Blobspace revenue to reach $1 billion. All things we don’t seem
all that likely to see. If the likes of Converge flourish and Ethereum’s ecosystems woes persist,
Standard Charted’s $4,000 might already be the generous case. A prolonged bleed in economics
could pin ETH under previous all-time highs, comfortably above cycle lows, yet still a shadow
of BTC’s run. From a different perspective than onchain metrics, Arthur Hayes’s bullish thesis
perhaps seems more reasonable. Relying far more on the changing state of market liquidity,
reflexive price action and market psychology, Hayes’s framing for a $5,000 ETH target seems more
attainable. Considering this, something between the prediction from Standard Charted and Arthur
Hayes seems like a balanced take. optimistic for some upside, but that upside does hinge on market
factors beyond the control of Ethereum devs. This run has been Bitcoin ccentric. BTC soaked up
institutional mind share as digital gold while Ethereum became a utility backbone whose own coin
captures less and less of the value it enables. However, this is crypto and logic goes out of
the window when riskon sentiment takes over.
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