A rapid quantum computing breakthrough enhances the fear of Bitcoin’s security. Some experts believe that Q-Day can arrive much earlier than previously thought.
David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, warns that quantum computers can break very secure algorithms in two or three years, discovering that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are surprisingly unprepared.
Global quantum race accelerates
The quantum sector is moving forward at an incredible pace. Governments and private companies are investing increasingly vast sums of money to speed up the next major technical breakthrough.
On Thursday, the South Korean government announced plans to invest around 650 billion wins (over $480 million) over the next eight years. The funding will strengthen the country’s quantum technical capabilities, including high-performance computers.
Three days ago, the UK announced it would commit more than $921 million to speed up the application of quantum technology in a variety of sectors, from energy to healthcare.
Such investments reflect a global phenomenon. Quarter first quarter report by Quantum Insider revealed an astounding 125% surge in Quantum Technology Investments compared to a year ago, exceeding $1.25 billion.
Meanwhile, the technology itself is quickly refined.
Quantum threat to modern encryption
Current encryption, like RSA, relies on the unsolvable mathematical problems of classical supercomputers. Specifically, RSA-2048, the vast online data of the 2048-bit standard, derives strength from the near-impossibility of considering its large prime numbers.
However, Qubits enables quantum algorithms such as Shor’s algorithms to solve these “hard” problems exponentially faster.
Last month, Google Quantum AI estimated that RSA-2048 could be destroyed in under a week with fewer than a million cases, and could accelerate the timeline of threats dramatically.
So how far are we from watching quantum computers break RSA-2048 encryption?
Keybreakthrough fuel quantum alarm
Last year, a group of Chinese researchers led by Wang Chao of Shanghai University showed great advances in quantum cryptography. They considered the 22-bit RSA key using a special type of computer known as the D-Wave Quantum Annealer.
This breakthrough shows that it continues to improve the scalability of quantum annealing systems, particularly overcoming the previous 19-bit key limits, as encryption methods, across previous known boundaries.
Carvalho highlighted the urgency of these advances to Beincrypto.
“This encryption itself is not the most secure, but what’s frightening is the speed that progressed from 19-bit to 22-bit encryption. It’s clearly only a matter of time before a quantum computer can break a very secure algorithm, the Naoris protocol.
He doesn’t just emphasize that impending strength.
Leaders encourage preparation
University of Waterloo expert Michele Mosca previously predicted that basic public key encryption could be broken by 2026. Key technology and banking organizations, including IBM, Microsoft and Swift, are currently urgently advising organizations to plan an urgent Quantum encryption migration.
“This is delayed every day, and cybercriminals are approaching hacking all important systems, and once they are hacked, what is lost will never be recovered.
But how quickly is this threat actually exposed? What do you really need to break encryption?
Separate hype from reality
Breakthroughs such as taking into account 22-bit RSA keys are certainly important advancements, but they must be put into perspective.
A 22-bit key is an increase from 19-bit, but very different from breaking RSA-2048. The jump is not linear. This is an exponential increase in complexity that requires more Qubits and significantly improved error correction.
To break RSA-2048 in a practical timeline, you need a quantum computer (CRQC) associated with encryption.
Such a machine can run Shor’s algorithm with sufficient fault tolerance and sustained operation over several days, but remains a monumental obstacle. Many experts predict that they will arrive after the late 2030s.
Nevertheless, the accelerated pace of quantum breakthroughs requires immediate and aggressive planning to protect Bitcoin’s future security against Q-Day inevitable (uncertain, but inevitable).
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