Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, but altcoins have not begun a bullish cycle. In fact, Altcoins has gone through a challenging stage. Their bear market is now longer in history.
Recent analysis from experts shows that Altcoins have remained in the bear market for an unusually long time. This raises questions among investors. Will the “Altcoin season” really happen this year?
The Altcoin Bear market exceeds historic length
May did not have the “selling in May” effect, which exacerbated the Altcoin slump. However, Altcoin’s market capitalization (Total3) needs to grow 40% to reach previous all-time highs.
According to analyst Cyclop, the “Other/BTC” chart, which tracks the market capitalization of Altcoins with Bitcoin (excluding the top 10 coins), shows that the current Altcoin Bear cycle has already been going on for 1,200 days.
In comparison, the previous Altcoin Bear cycle lasted only about 945 days.
Cyclop’s chart shows that Altcoins endured 1, 247 days of pain, with the ratio dropping from 0.5 to 0.11. This reflects the massive sales pressure and sustained pessimism surrounding the Altcoin market.
Similarly, analyst Crypto Dan points out that the current Altcoin cycle has grown to 1,650 days. This was much longer than the previous cycle, and usually after about 1,400 days the Altcoin season was seen.
This extraordinarily long period has shaken up investors’ confidence in the short-term recovery of altcoins.
Investor Captain Faibik shared his personal story. He grabbed his altcoin in hopes of faith and turnaround. But what he saw instead is a continuation of decline. This is a sentiment shared by many people in the market.
“The worst part is not just loss, but constant uncertainty. You do your research, follow a strong setup, listen to the basics and stories, and still… the market doesn’t bother you.
What will be next for Altcoin investors?
Despite the long-term bear cycle, analysts are not completely pessimistic. They believe that the current trend, although longer than usual, still leaves room for hope.
Cyclop, for example, relies on market psychology. He argues that when sentiment hits the bottom of a rock, the market is usually close to that bottom.
“What calms me down about Alt? When everything is too good → Market top. When everything is bad, it’s the Golden Rule. It’s the Golden Rule – to sell or buy, people need a trigger.
Crypto Dan predicts that if the Altcoin season arrives in 2025 it will last longer than usual, consistent with the size of institutional capital inflows.
“During the previous cycle (2020-2021), during the 300-day Altcoin season, Altcoin’s market capitalization skyrocketed by around 1,300%. This time, due to the Spot ETF and facility capital, the cycle has grown longer than usual.
Analyst Decode shares Dan’s views. He believes that long waits will pay off against the despair from Altcoin investors.
“The longest accumulation in history is something that could be the biggest orthoseason we’ve ever seen,” Decode said.
Recently, Beincrypto reported that institutions have kept Bitcoin and then moved to accumulation of Altcoins starting with ETH and SOL. Experts predict that public crypto cars (PCVs) will begin investing in the top 50 altcoins.
This could trigger an institution-wide Altcoin season, unlike previous cycles.
However, some analysts have warned that if the Altcoin season occurs it could mark the final stage of the market-wide bull cycle, followed by a massive crash.
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