have you noticed how the world feels increasingly
chaotic [Music] polarized and uncertain well that’s no accident According to some historians
we’ve entered what’s known as a fourth turning a period of major crisis that threatens to reshape
society the economy and even the global order So in today’s video we’ll explain exactly what
this fourth turning is why it appears to be happening now and how it could impact markets
your investments and especially crypto My name is Guy and believe me this is a video you can’t
afford to miss Now before we dive deep into the fourth turning let’s first get clear on exactly
what it is and where it came from So back in 1997 two authors and historians Neil How and William
Strauss published a groundbreaking book titled The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy In
it they proposed a startling idea that history moves in predictable cycles lasting roughly 80
to 100 years about the span of a human lifetime Each of these cycles is divided into four distinct
phases or turnings with each phase lasting roughly two decades Now according to Strauss and
how these generational cycles have played out repeatedly throughout history shaping society
culture and politics along the way Each turning is defined by a prevailing mood and specific
types of events much like seasons in a year First comes the high a period of strong
institutions collective confidence and social cohesion Imagine the prosperous years
following World War II with booming economies stable family units and rising living standards
Next comes the awakening when younger generations begin questioning established norms and pushing
for personal freedom and cultural change Think of the energetic but chaotic vibes of the 1960s and
70s when people challenged authority experimented with new lifestyles and fought for social change
Following that comes the unraveling marked by growing individualism weakening institutions
and a breakdown in consensus This is similar to the culture wars political division and economic
instability we’ve seen since the 1980s A period where society gradually splinters into competing
factions And finally we reach the fourth turning a time of deep crisis when old systems collapse
forcing societies to fundamentally reorganize History shows these periods often involve severe
challenges like wars revolutions economic crashes or widespread social unrest Now according to how
we’re actually living through a fourth turning right now In fact he predicted decades ago that
we’d start entering this turbulent period sometime between the mid 2000s and early 2020s What makes
a fourth turning so significant though is not just the turmoil itself but the way it fundamentally
reshapes our society and economy It’s a bit like a forest fire Devastating yes but necessary
for new growth Old systems break down debts are reset and new institutions rise from the ashes
Consider World War II as an example It wasn’t just a devastating conflict It completely reshaped
the global order Post-war institutions like the UN and NATO and the Breton Woods agreement
radically altered the geopolitical landscape and financial systems Similarly after the Civil War
the United States underwent profound social and economic transformations that paved the way for
its industrial rise And today we’re seeing the signs of a similar seismic shift The economic
models that dominated the past few decades characterized by globalization easy credit and
free flowing capital are coming apart Policy makers are grappling with massive imbalances and
debts and experimenting with unprecedented fiscal policies as a result So whether we like it or not
it seems that the fourth turning is upon us But this raises a critical question Why is the fourth
turning happening right now and what’s driving this massive societal shift And by the way if
you’re enjoying this video so far then be sure to fourth turnings don’t just randomly pop up They’re
triggered by deeprooted imbalances that build up over preceding decades And when these pressures
finally reach a breaking point the established order begins to crumble But why now specifically
the first major factor is the decadesl long buildup of economic imbalance After World War II
the world experienced unprecedented prosperity initially driven by reconstruction efforts
expanding trade and booming consumer markets and later accelerated by globalization from the
1980s onwards However the true explosion of debt accumulation and historically low interest rates
really began following the 2008 global financial crisis Governments corporations and individuals
took advantage of this ultra cheap debt to borrow enormous amounts of money fueling economic growth
and sending asset prices soaring While this system delivered prosperity to some at any rate its
foundations were always fragile The reliance on everinccreasing debt artificially low interest
rates and continuous credit expansion simply isn’t sustainable forever And today global debt stands
at levels never seen before pushing countries and economies to their limits This debtfueled model
showed cracks during the 2008 financial crisis and again after the pandemic forcing governments
and central banks to intervene by easing policy essentially kicking the can down the road Then
we have the political and social fragmentation that’s been steadily growing for decades Trust
in governments financial institutions and the media has continuously deteriorated and wealth
inequality has only increased with a shrinking percentage of elites accumulating more and more
of the world’s wealth This divide could widen even further with AI stepping in to snatch up the
jobs currently held by everyday plebs like you and me And interestingly many elites are proposing
universal basic income as a potential solution One that might boost their wealth even more A
topic which we covered in depth right over here Now such a growing gap has fueled polarization and
populism around the globe evidenced by the rise of anti-establishment leaders across the political
spectrum From Trump in the US to Maloney in Italy Malay in Argentina and far-right movements
worldwide people are increasingly demanding real change not just empty promises from one election
to the next Meanwhile another important element is the gradual geopolitical shift sparked by
China’s rise over the past several decades Following the end of the Cold War the US initially
enjoyed unmatched global dominance economically and militarily But China’s steady ascension
since the 1990s has increasingly challenged American dominance This slow burning rivalry has
intensified competition over trade technology and military power creating geopolitical tensions
closely resembling those seen during previous fourth turnings Historically the rise of a
competing superpower always disrupts the existing global order and fosters instability And finally
there’s demographics The generation who truly understood the devastating lessons of the last
fourth turning those who experienced World War II firsthand have largely passed away With them
society has lost invaluable wisdom gained through extreme hardship and sacrifice In their place new
generations are stepping into leadership roles However unlike previous generations who lived
through World War II and the Great Depression these new generations have never experienced an
existential crisis of similar magnitude Without firsthand knowledge of how devastating such crises
can be they may be more inclined to challenge or dismantle institutions potentially underestimating
the severe consequences this could have So taken together then these deeply rooted economic
imbalances steadily growing political and social fragmentation rising geopolitical tensions
with China and a pivotal generational transition have created the conditions for a perfect storm
These are not random events but the culmination of decades of trends and pressures that are
slowly reaching breaking point which leads us to the pressing question Just how severe could
this forth turning become well to answer this we need to look back in time As the old saying
goes history doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes So what can history teach us about what lies ahead
according to Strauss and how fourth turnings bring profound crises that reshape society from the
ground up economically politically and socially Previous forth turnings include the American
Revolution the US Civil War and the Great Depression that eventually led to World War
II Each of these crises severely disrupted existing institutions and forced societies to
undergo fundamental transformations Today Neil How believes we’re heading into similarly
turbulent waters Let’s first consider the economic consequences of the accumulated global
debt that we’ve discussed earlier When debts reach unsustainable levels governments have
three main ways to respond Cutting spending substantially defaulting outright or inflating
away the debts Inflation historically has been the preferred political path because it quietly
reduces debt without overtly slashing services or increasing taxes But while inflation benefits
governments it devastates ordinary citizens by eroding their savings and purchasing power We got
a glimpse of this reality during the pandemic when governments worldwide resorted to printing their
way out of trouble causing the prices of everyday essentials to surge This approach benefited the
wealthy who owned assets widening societal divides even further in the process If inflation escalates
beyond control however governments typically double down by imposing heavy-handed measures
like financial repression where investors and citizens are forced to hold government debt
or currency despite their rapidly diminishing values And beyond the economic implications
the geopolitical landscape today also poses an alarming risk especially the tensions between
the US and China A single geopolitical misstep say in the Taiwan Strait could quickly escalate
into conflict between these two superpowers And it’s a lot more likely to happen than many people
realize possibly as soon as 2027 as we explored in our recent video about China potentially invading
Taiwan which you can find right over here Now if such an event occurs there’s a significant
chance that the US could become directly involved Just imagine the aftermath Global supply chains
breaking down commodity prices soaring and widespread panic gripping financial markets
worldwide This would significantly alter the international order forcing nations to choose
sides And we can already see early signs of this polarization particularly between Western
nations and the BRICS countries At home meanwhile the internal divisions we’ve seen building up
over decades could ignite political and social instability Fourth turnings historically fracture
societies deeply along ideological lines causing governance dysfunction and increased risk of
internal unrest However history also provides a silver lining to this very dark cloud While fourth
turnings are undoubtedly challenging they also foster unity through shared struggle People come
together in times of great adversity rediscovering a collective sense of purpose But reaching this
stage often means accepting stronger governmental controls temporary sacrifices of personal
liberties and significant economic pain Now given all this potential turmoil ahead how exactly
could markets and crypto fare during this fourth turning well as you might have guessed given
the economic and geopolitical instability we’ve discussed it’s probably no surprise that markets
could become highly volatile and unpredictable as this forth turning unfolds According to renowned
financial historian Russell Napia we’re likely entering a prolonged era of financial repression
elevated inflation and tight capital controls In fact there’s a classic saying in investing
circles Economic expansions don’t simply die of old age They are murdered And today there seems
to be no shortage of such potential catalysts From intensifying global trade wars to China’s
increasingly aggressive posture towards Taiwan Now this doesn’t mean you should panic sell
your portfolio and brace for the apocalypse But given that we’re heading deeper into this
fourth turning a cautious and informed approach is essential That being said however as
we highlighted in our 2025 predictions video there’s still a chance this crypto bull run
could continue throughout the rest of the year Yet understanding the deeper forces at play is crucial
because it will determine how severe and lengthy the next bare market could become So consider
the following potential scenario If inflation continues to cool as it has in recent months even
amidst tariff pressures and the economy slows but avoids a full-blown recession it could create
the perfect conditions for stocks and crypto to rally This might be fueled by some form of easing
not necessarily from the Federal Reserve directly but perhaps from institutions like the Treasury
through bond buybacks which effectively serve as a form of quantitative easing But such positive
sentiment could rapidly unravel if inflation resurfaces due to ongoing trade disruptions Under
those conditions the Fed would be forced into aggressive tightening potentially triggering a
sharp market downturn and driving the economy into recession At that point the Fed would find
itself stuck between a rock and a hard place If they fire up those money printers again to
save the economy from a painful recession they risk reigniting dangerously high inflation On
the other hand though cutting interest rates to boost growth isn’t an easy option either
since they would still have to fight inflation Economic turmoil of this magnitude could further
inflame the geopolitical tensions we’ve previously mentioned marking a significant low for markets
and perhaps the darkest phase of the fourth turning If that scenario unfolds stocks and crypto
could fall far lower than many investors expect Napia also suggests that we’re transitioning into
an environment where highly speculative and hyper financialized assets could lose favor The era
of easy money and ultra- low interest rates that boosted speculative markets is ending And this
means that the crypto and economic cycles we’re currently living in may be the last of their kind
at least for the foreseeable future Towards the end of this decade companies and cryptos that
survive and thrive will be those delivering genuine realworld adoption and sustainable revenue
In crypto’s case specifically we may end up with significantly fewer projects than we have today
The winners will be those with solid fundamentals proven utility and healthy financial runway The
entire crypto space could shift dramatically focusing less on speculation and more on quality
realworld protocols As financial conditions tighten and capital flows become less speculative
only the strongest will survive Now as you’ve probably noticed there are many unknowns here
Exactly how all this unfolds how long it could last and what additional implications could arise
is anyone’s guess But if history is any guide we’re likely entering the dark period before we
get to the brighter era of peace and prosperity that follows fourth turnings But how exactly
should you invest your hard-earned money to not only survive but thrive during this monumental
shift well one thing that’s clear by now is that the usual investment playbook won’t always cut it
We saw this clearly in the 2022 market downturn where traditionally safe assets like bonds which
were supposed to shield investors during tough times took heavy hits alongside equities In this
emerging fourth turning characterized by high inflation capital controls financial repression
and geopolitical uncertainty a fundamentally different strategy is needed Fortunately we have
valuable insights from experts like Russell Napia and Neil How to guide us through So let’s break
down exactly how you can prepare asset class by asset class So first off bonds Now historically
bonds have been a go-to safe haven offering steady returns and security But in this environment
bonds could become a risky bet As we’ve covered earlier global debt has surged to unprecedented
levels and governments typically choose to quietly inflate away this debt rather than make unpopular
spending cuts or tax hikes As inflation takes hold bond holders will demand higher yields in order to
compensate This causes bond prices to fall leaving existing bonds with deteriorating value Simply
put holding traditional government or corporate bonds during this fourth turning could prove
dangerous for your portfolio Secondly equities Over the past decade growth focused tech stocks
driven by cheap capital and globalization have produced outsized returns But now this narrative
could flip entirely The new economic landscape favors tangible sectors like infrastructure
defense commodities manufacturing and energy We could see governments worldwide ramping up
their spending in these areas to rebuild economies restore supply chains and boost national security
So shifting your focus towards these sectors could position your portfolio to weather and potentially
thrive amid this upheaval Third commodities When inflation and currency devaluation strike precious
metals like gold and silver historically perform well Gold especially stands out not only as an
inflation hedge but potentially as a new reserve asset if confidence in traditional currencies
deteriorates This might also explain why gold has enjoyed such a sustained rally in recent
years a topic we recently covered right over here Besides precious metals other commodities like
oil copper uranium and agricultural products could also perform strongly given their essential roles
in economic activity and national security But you’ll have to research which ones they could be
in your own time Fourth cryptocurrencies As we’ve covered before it’s likely that many cryptos
simply won’t survive the upcoming bare market especially in an environment defined by higher
interest rates and tighter access to credit So how do you identify the potential survivors well
beyond established heavyweights like Bitcoin and Ethereum the key is to look for cryptocurrencies
gaining genuine realworld adoption These will likely carve out their own specific niches be it
in payments gaming decentralized infrastructure or otherwise Remember however most cryptos will
likely see a decline from their bull market highs once the bare market sets in However the ones with
actual adoption and genuine utility stand the best chance of emerging back once the next bull market
inevitably comes around And finally we have to consider geographic diversification and mindset
shift In an era of potential capital controls geographic diversification becomes critical You’ll
want to hold assets in jurisdictions less likely to impose strict controls or financial repression
Now exactly where you diversify depends on your own research and circumstances but the core
principle is clear Don’t put all your eggs in one basket Additionally it’s essential to shift
your investing mindset away from simply chasing returns towards preserving your existing wealth In
challenging times the investors who succeed aren’t necessarily those making the biggest gains They’re
those who manage to limit losses most effectively With all that said however there’s no denying the
period ahead could be significantly challenging But armed with a clear understanding of what’s
potentially coming you’re now better equipped to navigate these uncertain times And rest
assured we’ll be here every step of the way to keep you informed as this fourth turning
unfolds Okay that’s all for today’s video
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