This is the most bullish day of the year, according to data compiled by one technical analyst. Still, all three major US equity indices opened low to start the third quarter and the second half of 2025.
President Donald Trump’s big, beautiful bill and fiscal policy fate outweighs tariff and trade policy as the main story at this point, and has had a major impact on multiple sectors.
Vice President JD Vance broke a 50-50 tie in the Senate shortly after noon. This is a vote to send the President’s Signature Act back to the House ahead of the July 4th deadline.
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The Dow Jones industrial average surged early on in Green due to the strength of its stocks in healthcare and materials, and retained its profits, while technology and communications services stocks were heavy on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite.
“Other days this year don’t showcase the full strength of this amount,” wrote Jeffrey Hirsch, an annual editor of stock traders.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +4.5%), Amgen (AMGN, +4.1%) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW, +3.5%) led Dow Jones stock upside down. Nvidia (NVDA, -3.0%) was ranked 30th, but is still heading towards a market capitalization of $4 trillion.
Meta platforms (Meta, -2.6%) and Netflix (NFLX, -3.4%) also recorded significant declines to open the third quarter.
Mr. Powell goes to Sintra
“Where you go, you go there” is a famous reduction in Ralph Waldo Emerson’s concept of travel. And that’s because of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who stuck to his boundaries on Portugal’s tariffs and inflation on Tuesday.
Speaking at the European Central Bank Forum, Chair Powell said the Fed will continue to monitor the impact of tariffs on prices and growth.
“We’re just taking the time,” Powell said. “As long as the US economy is in a solid form, I think the wise thing we should do is wait, learn more and see what those effects are.”
Recent incoming data broadly suggests that inflation is cooling, but the Fed’s priority gauge (Personal Consumption Expense Price Index (PCE)) was a little higher than expected in May.
“I think so,” Powell said in a panel discussion when asked about the Fed had cut interest rates by now but because of Trump’s tariffs.
“In reality, we saw the scale of tariffs and when we saw essentially all US inflation forecasts have risen substantially as a result of tariffs, we were put on hold,” he explained.
Still, price measures in the federal fund futures market show that investors, traders and speculators are hoping the Fed will cut twice between now and December with a total of 50 basis points.
The PMI for ISM manufacturing rose in June, but remained in the area of shrinkage, with construction spending falling in May for the seventh consecutive month.
At the same time, job openings have been stronger than expected in May and have been stable since mid-2024.
We are now turning to work for insights from the week shortened to this holiday, as well as the other half of the Fed’s dual mission and new insights into the labour market that show signs of both weakness and resilience.
According to Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, the conclusion is, “We need to have clarity on tariffs… we need certainty about what the tariff rates are and what they cover.”
Uncertainty, Lee writes, is “putting a brake on business plans.” Economists hope that the Fed will be “pending this summer (certainly in July)” but they hope to make the next cut after Labor Day.
Please note that the US stock market will close at 1pm and the bond market will close at 2pm on Thursday. Both the stock and bond markets are closed in the US on Friday in compliance with Independence Day.
What Warren Buffett buys
The US Treasury harvest over the decade has been soaked at 4.248% on Tuesday, from 4.226% on Monday, but the key benchmark continues to decline.
In fact, the overall Treasury maturity spectrum yields are coming down ahead of the expected FRB rate reduction.
And, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase (JPM), one of the world’s most well-known investors is buying shorter-term US Treasury bills and double their holdings.
In fact, Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) currently own a T-Building of nearly $350 billion.
Would you like to invest in Omaha Oracles? It’s probably easier than you think. Here’s how to purchase a Treasury bill:
By the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average had scored between 0.9% and 44,494, while the S&P 500 lost 0.1% at 6,198, while the Nasdaq composites fell 0.8% at 20,202.
Trump vs Musk
Trump continues to take shots with Powell, where he was nominated for Fed Chairman in his first administration. The president is also pursuing a new feud with another person he once closed, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla (TSLA, -5.3%).
Former Doge administrators are opposed to Trump’s big beautiful bill as a waste of taxpayer money. And he has sparked a response from the president, potentially affecting the stock price of TSLA.
“Elon may get more subsidies than any other person in history,” Trump posted to the True Society, and without subsidies, Elon will likely have to close his shop and return to South Africa. ”
What Dan Ives describes as a “eternal best friend” situation has now been transformed into Melod Opera, a Tesla stock overhang.
Wedbush analysts and longtime TSLA Bull have specifically pointed out the potential drugs of Tesla and SpaceX, most importantly, the autonomous future that will be key to the future regulatory environment for Robotaxis and CyberCab. ”
Still, Ives concludes, “At the end of the day, Musk needs Trump, and Trump needs Musk considering he will have an AI arms race between the US and China.”
Analysts repeated the TSLA stock’s outperform (purchase) rating and the 12th month target price of $500.
